two words: Election Cycle. Markets haven't been down in 43 years during the two years that lead up to it. It is no coincidence that the SP has rallied straight up since 3/20 til now, with nary a pullback. 3/20/00 was 3 years since SP top close 1527. Bush ended that with Iraq (3/20/03) ....we haven't looked back since.. Think about it...a nearly 300 point rally in SP, without ANY major correction more than 5%? Hitting bids on downticks going by the wayside? The electoral agenda is quite clear, stock market up=re-election. Period. See May 1970-Dec 1972..Nifty 50 era..we are in it again. (Substitute Vietnam for Iraq, OPEC cuts, Stagflation..etc) Only the names have changed.... SP 1200 by 12/04...600 by mid 07...I am sticking with this til it cost's me money. Best, David
I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist but that's an interesting point. However, bullets didn't keep the market from bottoming last fall; in fact, they didn't keep the market from making all time highs in 2000.
You can't really back test it either. EW interpretation seems to involve a lot of hind-sight reajustments of the wave count, etc.