I have added a new column to the spreadsheet (portfolio UnReal DD %). The last 25 days of real live trading show that System #2 (Cash & Carry) had a total drawdown of as high as 17.1%, when looking at both the Cash and the Carry total portfolio exposure... Not bad for a system with a projected 47% profit for a year of trading!... May I remind you there are no stops and there is never a realized loss for a day...So the drawdown is not really a drawdown that is realized. Michael B.
System #1 "Volatility Grabber" I have to say the "trend acceleration" idea, is not what I am looking for. It takes too much time, and it would achieve placement of double trades at the tops and bottoms, which does not solve the geometric problem. To build the pool/grid/grab is the expensive part, but this acceleration needed between the range proves to be elusive. Please excuse me for wasting your time readers, but I am trying to think out loud as much as possible... Trend following is not the answer for me, within this type of trading. But the tab is archived here in ET, for those of you that want to work with it. Back to the drawing board.... Michael B. P.S. What "sticks" for me is the "Time Increment" and the "Increment Finder & Sizer". Perhaps expeimentation with time zones and layered ranges could be interesting to work with and prove to be something that "sticks"....but labor is the ugly....about these acceleration methods...
Yes, I agree. I didnt' want to say anything earlier in hopes you would figure a way to make it work. It may help you keep a float a little longer, but it does not solve the problem. It comes back to the question, how do you take advantage of the volitility without being killed when there is a trend? With our current system the price has to range several times just to break even (at least while we are filling the pool). Let look at an example. Say we are trading a currency that ranges up 100 pips then back down to the start. system #1 Buy long and short every 10 pips with 20 pip targets. At + 100 pips: Your long account is at +180 realized pips (9*20) and + 10 unrealized pips. Your short account has -550 pips unrealized. NAV = -360. Back down to 0 point: Your long account is at +180 pips realized and -550 pips unrealized. Your Short account has +180 realized and +10 unrealized. NAV = -180. System #2 Buy Long when price moves up 10 pips, and short when price moves down 10 pips. Targets still 20 pips. At +100 pips: your long account is at +160 Realized and +10 unrealized. Your short account is at 0. NAV = +170. Back down to 0: Your long account is at +160 Realized and -190 unrealized. Your short account is at +160 Realized and + 10 unrealized. NAV = +140. System #3 fill grid at zero (dwstart) + and - 100 pips every 10 pips. set targets at 20 pips. At + 100 pips: Your long account is at +540 Realized and 0 unrealized. Your short account is at -900 unrealized. NAV = -360 Back down to 0: Your long account is at +540 realized and at -340 (if you fill the grid back up on the way down). And your short account is back to 0. NAV = +180 System #1 will not work in any kind of a trend. It has to range several times just to break even. System #2 looks good, but may not be as good in a real market where the price bounces in small 10 pip ranges filling the grid like system #1. System #3 looks good too, but it is set up on a +-100 pip initial start and we ranged 100 pips. Which makes it look better than if I set it up for a 1000 pip pool. But it would still be the same back at the 0 point. So here are some things to think about (I am mostly just thinking out loud and have not tested this). Lets try to fill the pool in increments using the dwstart. This would also reduce the amount of time watching the computer and still give you profits on small moves. Maybe even combine system #2 with System #3 and wait for a 100 pip move then fill the next 100 pips in that direction. Example: if you are trading 100 units per trade, and price goes up 100 pips, Buy 900 units with targets at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70 ,80, 90, and 100 pips, then when you hit your 100 pip target, buy 900 with the same targets. Like I say, I don't know how that will work, But there are lots of different combinations to try. I like the idea of filling the grid in increments though, but maybe not combinging the two. David p.s. When I say system #1 and system #2, I am not refering to the general system #1 "Volatility Grabber" or system #2 "cash and carry". Sorry, I should have used other names.
Electric, I have been reviewing your journal, and let me congratulate you on finding an edge, and taking the time to share it with the rest of ET. While I admit I know very little about forex trading, I do understand what it is to trade, and to take an edge and start "dialing it up" a little. In trading you "have got to be in it to win it." That means, that once you have an edge, you have to start exploiting it and making some real money. It begs the question, why bother to pull out capital every month, why not reinvest those profits into your business and build your capital base and add to your income? Why not double your capital in your account, and double your monthly income? I believe that you could be making much more than you are, "You have got to be in it to win it!" I wish you continued success! Mike
Hello Mike and thanks for the kind words, I absolutly have a requirement to pay myself labor in trading. Its a reality check for me. I have trouble explaining this, but if I can't grow the money AND pay myself its not worth it... There will come a day when I am trading with house money, and that will be the day that I prove to everybody here that trading IS ABSOLUTLY NOT GAMBLING. Thanks for the warm feelings Mike...and Good trading to you. Michael B.
As a trader, I understand the necessity of pulling out a paycheck monthly and getting paid for your time, but, if you never reinvest some of your profits it will be impossible to build your business and earn what you are really worth! Continued succes to you! Mike
I just can't get off this" Volatility Grabber" Could you imagine the "grab parameters" being so wide that all the trades were within the max drawdown level that you survived?... It's fascinating.... Thank you System #2 (Cash and Carry) followers for tolerating all this "side research" deviating from the MAIN system... Michael B. P.S. And thank you dw and others most of all for all the work, PM's and encouragement along the way. Those of you that check in from time to time please keep in touch. This is what makes it worth it to me. Your comments will be reviewed by me and many others for years to come in this archive. Maybe something even beyond my wildest dreams can come from this who knows...But I am satisfied with what I have now. God Bless you
mschey, I will consider this. There is a lot to talk about, but it would not be necessary. I see your point. Labor is a fixed cost and larger numbers would make it just a speck of sand in the scheme of things Michael B.
Do you know what the two biggest blessings for me would be? 1) One of you traded "Cash and Carry" or whatever you want to call it and thanked me later for being a positive part in your life. 2) I get contacted by an Accredited Investor (s) or an Institution(s) inviting me to trade a larger amount of capital for them. This is the truth as to why I am sharing here in ET. #2 above was just a recent realization that Wifey told me about. I did not think my stuff was worth anything.... All of a sudden, I am feeling anxious...and you know what I do when that happens! I get these temporary feelings of greed and feel sorry that I shared one of my trading secrets. But I will tell each and every one of you....it will all come back and it is worth it. The warm feelings that I have in my heart tonight, NOBODY can take away from me. There is no hurry...There are so many ways to take money out of the market safely...Do YOU have what it takes, I say YES! Meanwhile lets trade and brainstorm! I am learning a lot and readers, you might too! I have a lot to teach and a lot to learn, some say I never shut up! I here Wifey calling me...gotta go. Michael B.