I don't understand how inflation would be a factor in the study. The study said if you invested $1,000 in the Dow in August 1900. So, I am thinking that if you time traveled backward to August 1900, asked your grandfather for $1,000, and invested the $1,000 in the Dow, and then time traveled forward to 2009 and saw the value of your account, it would say, $157,000. You could read the study here: http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/21577 What I want to know is how exactly the $1,000 is invested in the Dow in August 1900. Could one invest $1,000 in the Dow with ONE TRANSACTION?
I doubt it. While we're at it, I'd like to request the perma-bulls post a chart of the inflation adjusted S&P 500 since it's peak in 2000. All of their breathless posts about a "great time to buy stocks" probably hasn't accounted for the diminished purchasing power of the currency itself. Meanwhile, Gold is within spitting distance of $2,000/oz
I hope you're trolling, cause this is just getting worse and worse. I never said the golden cross was a reliable indicator the next secular bear market, either. I said it beat buy-and-hold as a basic timing system. That was really an aside, but you wanted to make a big deal about it then questioned hard data with nothing but opinion. I assumed you understood this as a long-only system, as virtually all long-term stock index systems (ie.., those trading once or twice a year) are long-only systems designed to protect against major downturns. I assumed too much. I was right. It does beat buy-and-hold signicantly for over 100 years. All of your red herrings and bickering don't change that. Studies like this hardly ever consider taxes. Take a look at some in academic journals. Just assume this should only be traded in an IRA/401K so taxes are a non-issue. The point is not to consider what would happen if somene literally traded this since 1900 (with all the changing tax brackets, investment vehicles, etc.). Obviously that never happened. The point is that it's one of many market-beating, drawdown-reducing ways to beat buy-and-hold. It's not the best one. But it's better than leaving your money in the market 100% of the time like a lemming and hoping you'll always be saved by a bailout or silly "don't bet against America" rhetoric.
Holy sh*t. Severe IQ boo jok. hajimow would know what I am talking about. hehe.... I am not going to touch this b/c if I respond then you will just argue that the grass is green and that sometimes it's yellow and then maybe you will move on to talk about the color of the sky. And then you kick it, with the "I am right". Scary sh*t. Sure, open up an IRA account in year 1900 and deposit $1,000 to buy the DOW with ONE TRANSACTION.
Now, Denner has to chime in and pat jsp326 on the back with some wise words...... But, the more they speak, the more they sound "smart". Dilemma......
You just described yourself perfectly. Thanks. It's the only cogent statement you've made so far. The purpose of market-timing studies is to research market behavior and TA tools with reasonable assumptions. Only those on the wrong end of the IQ bell curve make statements like "if I time-traveled back to 1900, I couldn't open an E-Trade account or buy ETFs with my iPhone. And there weren't even income taxes back then!" Time to end this thread.
He is at arms length but it is or was, because game is over imo, a huge huge mistake. They are the target now. Perp walks will be everywhere. Big power will not cry uncle to Ben, they will go after his ass.