Also what I posted was a 100% price move and a 66.6 or 2/3rds points per day move. We don't need no stinkin' fibs - in this case. Gann said use all the tools all the time. I use funnymentals when looking at the bigger longer picture. Just not when I am trading. Who trades (I'm talking small self-directed type) over months and years. No one I know. Especially with the continual uncertainty we all face. If this is all about investors on Elite Trader Forum - my question is ... why?
Geez you haven't read many papers before, have you? It's a student research paper under supervision of a professor. Formal hypothesis testing follows a specific format so you can review their methods and findings. I suppose you prefer zodiac symbols, though. You should read this book (but you won't lol) Amazon.com: Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals (9780470008744): Aronson, David: Books
no it isn't. If I trade an eMini or two or ten for the next couple of minutes/hours I couldn't care less what investors are thinking about next quarter or year or decade. That might be the way YOU trade. In case you hadn't noticed one size does not fit all when it comes to traders.
Then you missed the entire point of his book, which is that there is little to no predictive value in technical indicators. If you are trading, the best price signal is momentum. In fact, I provided a link to a great paper which details methods that can improve your trend analysis (buy with the trend, buy dips in the trend, etc.). Which Trend Is Your Friend? by Ari Levine, Lasse Heje Pedersen :: SSRN
You are making an implicit bet that there will be someone for you to sell to at a price better than what you bought it at. What would drive that behavior? If a price is falling, why wouldn't it continue to fall? There must be a perception of value or a characteristic about a future buyer/seller that drives your action. Otherwise, you are just admitting that it's random.
I said I read. I didn't say I agreed with all the book has to say:- My broken clock was right again - in this case NDX:-
lol this is also what the book warned against -- overfitting data lol. How about you make the next 10 trades using fibs and then tell me what the win/loss ratio was. Also, your timeframe looks really long for a "trader"....
Of course I am. But that buyer may be just like me - looking to get in and get out. And based on volume/open interest numbers - very likely.