No. As I said probability (likely/unlikely) and exposure are one and the same. You have a different opinion. That's allowed. What isn't allowed is for you to make that my opinion.
i have never heard of anyone claiming a probability that is a number between zero and 1 as being equal to exposure which is typically a dollar figure. So if you could elaborate, i would be very interested.
Do you track and later analyzes your trades. I do and I've come up with a weighting system as to the probable outcome, which I use to determine how much exposure to put in play for each future trade. But no R/R nonsense involved whatsoever.
how is your weighting system not a risk reward calculation? And how do your historic returns determine your future exposure? Isn’t the world today different from the past?
Because it weighs how successful it is, not how profitable it is. PA determines that. My world is today.
Isnt success the same as profit? if you are using your historical data to determine success rates then how do you apply that to today’s environment which is going to be different.
Success is executing the trade according to plan, which over time leads to being profitable over the months and years rather than using something like an arbitrary R/R ratio. But I think you and me have different trade horizons? Or maybe you just invest? When I say I track my trades and weight them to have a gauge of whether my next trade(s) might work out, I'm not talking about trades from 6 months ago. I daytrade. Numbers add up pretty quickly. Also I weight my trades in the same sense of how a weighted average weighs more recent data (trades) greater than earlier data. Trying to stay abreast of what the market is doing .... now.
I think you're mistaking your personal philosophy with definitions of things like "risk" and "return" etc. New was a derivatives trader at a major bulge bracket bank lol, he knows what he's talking about.