Election week ahead: Bull vs Bear forces?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Nov 1, 2020.

  1. Yep, definitely an important piece of the puzzle. Should be more boom times for traders. And, really, doesn't matter which way it goes - as long as it goes! But what could really kill trading IMHO is a stupid transaction tax. A Dem prez + Dem legislature could make that happen. Gridlock is just fine. :)
     
    #51     Nov 4, 2020
    KCalhoun and tomorton like this.
  2. bone

    bone

    Jesus to the moon. Learn to love the gridlock. ;)

    Hispanic vote for Trump way up in Texas and Florida offset the liberal white suburban Moms. Dumbfounded mainstream media and pollsters who got it oh so wrong once again... :rolleyes: Bernie Sander's campaign manager, Chuck Rocha (who is Latina) tweeted out "I told you so".
     
    #52     Nov 4, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  3. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Imho it's unethical how the biased media and their polls try to influence the election vs just reporting news like decades ago.
     
    #53     Nov 4, 2020
    ET180 likes this.
  4. ET180

    ET180

    Even if you compare 2013 - 2016 (an increase of $5,366) vs. 2019 - 2016 (an increase of $8096), that's still significant. But a better metric would be 2017 - 2020 which is an increase of almost $10k in 3 years. Just about double what happened under Obama from 2013 - 2016. Although I suspect some of the 2020 gains were due to C19 payments as many were making more sitting at home than they were working. Again, using the same data as earlier for median income: https://dqydj.com/household-income-by-year/. I could not load your data.census.gov link, said no results found. Also, these numbers do not take into effect the corporate profitability. Earnings for S&P500 companies are also significantly higher than they were at the end of Obama's term. Same with market caps. I won't dispute that much of that is due to central bank support and low interest rates forcing money into anything with a yield, but it is wealth. Even if you average all the GDP growth numbers from when Trump took office until just before C19 hit (can't blame Trump for C19, it was a global pandemic), Trump was still able to generate higher economic growth than Obama (if you exclude 2009, it's about the same). Given that Obama took office right when the S&P bottomed, he should have been achieving much higher growth as it is much easier to grow an economy when it is just coming out of a bad recession vs. when it is late cycle which I suspect is where we are now.

    Although I agree with your on clean power, I think the transition is already happen naturally as the price of solar falls. Private industry and innovation is driving that, no need for government subsidies. The first sentence in your article states: "Damages from air pollution have fallen dramatically in the U.S. in recent years, shows new research." Also, the article mentions, "The highest costs come from early deaths, attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5)." The green new deal stuff is primarily focused on reducing carbon emission from burning fossil fuels and perhaps animals. As more manufacturing leaves the US and heads to China or other places where government doesn't care about the environment, the air quality in the US will only improve. The article claims: "Air pollution negatively impacts the U.S. economy, costing the U.S. roughly 5 percent of its yearly gross domestic product (GDP) in damages ($790 billion in 2014)." But they do not provide any reference on where that 5% number came from. When did a quick Google search for most common causes of missed work, I found this article:

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/070513/causes-and-costs-absenteeism.asp

    I don't see air pollution mentioned anywhere. Why would they omit a factor that accounts for 5% of GDP as the Stanford article claims if it were really true? Also, many jobs provide extra sick days that are use it or lose it...usually people find a way to use it.

    Only if they pay taxes. But you are ignoring the economic impact that results from that policy in the first place. Resources are finite. $100 allocated to build a road in the middle of nowhere that no one will ever use, or fund a study proving that gravity exists, or fund a college degree that does not lead to a higher-paying job that could not have been obtained without that degree are all wastes of finite resources that could have been allocated to better purposes.

    Stop putting words in my mouth. I never said that I don't value education. My claim is that if one pursues an economically beneficial degree and completes the degree in a cost-effective manner (maybe go to community college for the first year, then state university), then they will have no trouble paying off the loan and won't need to beg some hard-working fellow American who managed to do fine despite not having a college education to bail them out. Why should a truck driver working hard and making $50k per year have to pay taxes to bail out a financially irresponsible individual who got a gender studies degree from a low-ranked university, got stuck with debt, and now works at Starbucks? That video in my last post shows many examples of that.
     
    #54     Nov 7, 2020
  5. ET180

    ET180

    I blame their audience. Aside from NPR, they have to sell advertising which means they need an audience. Why do they still have an audience? Complacency usually leads to bad things. People get the govt, they deserve.
     
    #55     Nov 7, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  6. tomorton

    tomorton


    Why shouldn't a certain corporation have the right to support the politics which is good for their business?
     
    #56     Nov 7, 2020
  7. bone

    bone

    That is the position that the Supreme Court took.

    Unless that Company is shielding itself behind Section 230 of the CDA - but that’s a separate discussion.
     
    #57     Nov 7, 2020
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    it’s half the reason trump got elected in the first place. His outlandish lies got media coverage because it generated eyeballs.
     
    #58     Nov 7, 2020
    Cuddles likes this.
  9. ET180

    ET180

    The media gave Trump all the airtime he wanted for free because it generated interest, but also because the media all believed Trump would be the weakest of the Republican challengers to run against Hillary and they wanted Hillary to win (obviously).
     
    #59     Nov 7, 2020
  10. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    ???? That’s the wildest theory I’ve heard in a long time and we live in the age of QAnon.

    I take that back. Foxnews didn’t want trump to win the nomination because foxnews is an arm of the Republican Party and the party didn’t think trump could win. However, Trump masterfully played foxnews such that they had to give him airtime for the eyeballs he was sending to CNN.

    for as much as trump hates CNN and the New York Times, he’s given them a lot of interviews. Why do you think that was?
     
    #60     Nov 7, 2020