Election - Market Reaction

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by mrchuffster, Nov 2, 2008.

  1. Any ideas on how the markets will react if a) Obama wins or b) McCain wins?

    Like to know your thoughts, Thanks.
  2. Regardless of outcome, removal of uncertainty should produce an initial rally. The flip-side, worst fear becomes fact, would indicate markets are reacting to news (which has been ignored the past week) and recent lows would be threatened and likely breached very quickly. Going forward, it's wait-and-see on the probability of aggressive plans actually being put into law within the first days/weeks/months of the new regime.
  3. obama victory priced in already, mccain victory possible rally...
  4. Obama = Dow tanks 1000 points
    McCain = Dow rallies 1000 points then pulls back some

    Obama is the "unknown"
  5. really? obama is the unknown??? with him ahead in the polls and mccain down in his own state with early voters?
  6. I am not talking about Polls.

    McCain has a voting record that spans decades. The markets have a good idea what to expect from McCain.

    From what I hear Obama has voted "present" most of the time so Obama really doesn't have a solid voting record that will enable analysts to predict "what comes next" under his administration.

    Your position is obvious, but you have not thought this through as far as the markets are concerned.
  7. Its being built in as I write this :D
  8. 151


    I do not think many people are out there waiting on the election to start buying again.

    I do think people are waiting on the election to start selling again.

    So no matter who wins a lot of people are going to think it is negative and start selling.
  9. I suspect that the bulk of investors are positioned with the assumption of an Obama victory since the press keeps presenting poll results to that effect.

    If O.B. wins, there should be no large change in price levels. If J.M. wins, I would expect a nice bump during the balance of the week.

    Beyond that it is anyone's guess.
  10. #10     Nov 2, 2008