Democrats look to quash threat from Green Party’s Jill Stein by Hanna Trudo - 10/18/24 6:00 AM ET Democrats are sounding the alarm over Green Party candidate Jill Stein as they look to avoid a repeat of the 2016 presidential election, in which Stein was accused of playing spoiler in key swing states. For months, Democrats had trained their ire on Robert F. Kennedy Jr., then an independent candidate running for the White House, and largely dismissed the impact Stein or other third-party aspirants could have in the battle between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. Now, with less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the party is warning that Stein could once again have a damaging effect in a matchup where every vote will matter for the leading candidates. “The threat from Jill Stein’s candidacy is real and growing by the day,” said Doug Gordon, a Democratic election operative and co-founder of UpShift Strategies. “Stein was instrumental to Trump getting a first term and she could be key to giving him a second term.” National Democrats’ anti-third-party crusade was at its peak when President Biden was trailing Trump and Kennedy was seeking to get on every state ballot. After he dropped out, the third-party threat seemed to fade, with more marginal candidates like Stein and fellow leftist Cornel West becoming afterthoughts. Kennedy, who has since endorsed and become a top surrogate for Trump, posed a specific threat to Democrats in that he had a famous name attached to their party but aligned politically with the right on many issues. Stein, however, is to the left of most progressives and, in Democrats’ estimation, comes with her own unique baggage. That lingering, eight-year-old resentment has prompted an uptick of activity across the party, with Harris’s allies strategizing multiple ways to cut off any support she has in states where 1 and 2 percent support could be decisive. “The small number of votes she won in 2016 in key battleground states was the difference between Clinton winning and Trump winning,” Gordon warned. “And with this race looking even closer than 2016, the votes that Stein gets will play an even greater role in helping Trump.” The Democratic National Committee is reinvigorating its oppo effort against Stein, tailoring their messaging in battlegrounds to warn voters that she could cost Harris the election. Party officials have launched a series of billboards in Wisconsin and Arizona calling the physician candidate a “spoiler.” One ad, which is currently overlooking West Glendale Avenue in Phoenix, Ariz., depicts a mockup image of Stein wearing Trump’s signature red “Make America Great Again” hat. While the former president hasn’t paid too much attention to Stein on the campaign trail, he has briefly lauded her ability to pull support from Democrats. Organizers with the DNC and liberal groups feel increased anxiety this cycle and are working in tandem to remind voters that Trump’s origin story was made possible partly by Stein. “We’re not leaving anything up to chance and will do whatever it takes to remind Arizona voters Jill Stein is a spoiler candidate who can help send Donald Trump back to the White House. Don’t leave it up to chance,” the DNC’s messaging reads. “The only way to avoid a repeat of 2016 is to cast your vote for Kamala Harris.” The Grand Canyon state ad was “authorized” by Harris’ campaign. Stein is expected to appear on a dozen state ballots, including safe blue California and New Jersey, Republican strongholds Louisiana and West Virginia, and even GOP-leaning states like Florida and Texas. But the majority of states where she’ll compete are the closest watched battlegrounds stretching beyond Arizona and Georgia to include Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes doesn’t hinge on those three states as much as Harris’s does, but both candidates are intensely targeting Pennsylvania, which went for Trump in 2016 and swung back for Biden as his home state in 2020. A recent state poll shows Stein occupying 1 percent of support there, according to a survey with The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver holds a slightly lower showing of support among voters surveyed. Elections analysts widely agree that 1 percent — and even as little as a half of 1 percent — is enough to make a difference in the states with the tightest margins. In Wisconsin, another battleground where the DNC has spent resources to attack Stein, the state Supreme Court shot down an appeal to remove her from the ballot before voters go to the polls. Stein is joined on the Badger State ballot by West, Oliver and even now-suspended Kennedy, who has encouraged his supporters to vote for Trump but could nonetheless siphon off unknown avenues for support.
Nate Silver and 538 switches to Trump,long after many of us already knew. https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-trump-momentum-kamala-harris-polling-electoral-college-1971490 Nate Silver Says There's 'Real Movement' Toward Trump in Polling Data Published Oct 18, 2024 at 4:37 PM EDT Polling expert Nate Silver said he sees "real movement" toward former President Donald Trump in recent polling data, signaling a shift in key swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Silver's analysis, based on his presidential model that tracks polling data and electoral trends, indicates that Trump now has a better chance of winning the Electoral College than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Allan Lichtman having doubts about his prediction.Harris will cause his prediction record to be lower. https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-weak-spot-ukraine-allan-lichtman-1971358 US Election 'Nostradamus' Identifies Possible Kamala Harris Weak Spot Published Oct 18, 2024 at 2:26 PM EDT
The Collapse of Kamala Harris Published Oct 18, 2024 at 6:00 AM EDT On July 26, in the aftermath of the Democratic Party's ruthless midsummer coup of their own democratically elected presidential nominee, this column predicted that the elevation of dimwitted cackler-in-chief Kamala Harris to the party's presidential slot would "spectacularly backfire." More specifically, I wrote: "Practically, the path to winning 270 Electoral College votes still runs through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. It is frankly bizarre for Democrats to swap out the man who talks ceaselessly about his hardscrabble Scranton upbringing for a Californian who boasts the most left-wing voting record of any presidential nominee in modern history." I'm feeling pretty good these days about that prognosis. Harris recently campaigned in Erie, Pennsylvania—a crucial regional hub in this election cycle's most important battleground state. Conspicuously absent from that snoozefest was incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.). Harris tried to pass off the snub as a nothingburger, suggesting that Casey was doing the more important work of knocking on doors and getting out the vote. This doesn't pass the laugh test. Facing a spirited challenge from Republican hopeful Dave McCormick, Casey has clearly concluded that Harris' immense Bay Area lefty baggage—her history of endorsing the Green New Deal, a national fracking ban and crippling electric vehicle mandates—is an electoral albatross around his neck. It's tough to blame Casey. Other vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents, such as Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.), reached the same conclusion a while ago. Such a conclusion makes a great deal of sense: A recent Marist national general election poll, for instance, shows Trump up a whopping 10 points on Harris with registered independents. If that margin ends up being anywhere near accurate, it is extraordinarily difficult to see a scenario in which Trump loses. Harris has recently been engaging in what the psychology profession calls "projection," ludicrously criticizing Donald Trump for avoiding the media when it was actually Harris who infamously avoided a single one-on-one sit-down interview for weeks on end following the Biden coup. In reality, Trump recently sat down for two interviews with TIME magazine, whose owner is a vocal Harris donor. Harris declined a Time interview, nonetheless. Prior to this week's desperate, last-second change of course, which saw her sit down with Fox News' Bret Baier, Harris had only deigned to sit down with the most obsequious media imaginable. One can only wonder how bad the Harris-Walz internal polling must be to impel her to ditch the far-left "Call Her Daddy" podcast and the friendly ladies of "The View" for the considerably more mainstream Baier. Desperate times sure call for desperate measures. Democrats routinely blast Republicans as misogynistic, but their own chronic misandry is so bad that Kamala is apparently considering a sit-down with podcast king Joe Rogan, whose own brand of woke-skeptical irreverence sharply clashes with Harris' identity politics obsessions and overt race-based pandering. The tables sure have turned. Will the last person hanging around Harris-Walz campaign headquarters please turn off the lights? Snark aside, this race isn't over yet. But the Harris-Walz camp cannot possibly be feeling too good right now, either. Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for their predicament. Throughout this interminable campaign season, they have studiously avoided substantive discussion of the four issues that Americans consistently tell pollsters are most important to them this cycle: the economy, inflation, immigration and crime. Instead, they have repeatedly attempted to shift the electoral terrain back to the few issues that poll in their favor: namely, abortion and the Jan. 6 jamboree at the Capitol. In this, they have completely failed. The American people still care above all about the same four basic quality-of-life issues that they have cared the most about for years now. It is Democrats' own fault that they are so woefully out of touch with the voters' sentiments on those issues and that the Biden-Harris administration's track record polls as poorly as it does. Perhaps, if the Harris-Walz ticket does go down in flames, Democrats will pause and take a long, hard look in the mirror. Perhaps they will recognize that promising late-term abortion is a peculiar way to pander to women, that pledging mass amnesty for illegal aliens is a counterproductive way to pander to Hispanics, and that dangling marijuana legalization is an outright offensive way to pander to blacks. Perhaps. But if history is any indication, they probably won't.
While Harris is a terrible candidate,to be fair to her she was doomed to fail from the start due to Biden's horrendous presidency.This lost is far more Joe Bidens fault than hers,but she should broke from Biden long ago,downright throw him under the bus, to have had a better shot.
Harris will get about 90 million votes stinky t. will get about 60 million the question is - what should be done with those 60 million supermorons?