71% of those polled said "we're on the wrong track", and +12 for the person part of the last four years administration. People are just idiots. "It'll be different this time, I swear!"
Kamala Harris Carves Open Huge Polling Lead Over Donald Trump https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-leger-poll-1932951 Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by her biggest margin yet, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by polling company Leger between July 26 and July 28, shows that when third party candidates are included, Harris leads Trump by 7 points, with the presumptive Democratic nominee on 48 percent compared to the former president's 41 percent. Meanwhile, only 5 percent of likely voters polled said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Third party voters have shifted toward the two main political parties since Leger's last poll in June, with the Democrats gaining 4 points and the Republicans gaining 3 points. The number of voters who would support another candidate in the race other than Trump and Harris has also decreased since Leger's last poll, with only 5 percent saying they would, compared to 12 percent in June, when Joe Biden was still on the ticket. In a head to head matchup, Harris retained her lead over Trump, winning 49 percent of likely voters to Trump's 46 percent. That represents a 4-point increase in the Democrat's lead over Trump since Leger's June poll. The July poll surveyed 1,002 adults over the age of 18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email. Recent polls have shown Trump and Harris close to neck and neck with each other. In a New York Times/Siena College poll published last week, Trump led Harris by 1 point in a head to head matchup—narrowing the race to a virtual tie after Trump led Biden by six points in a Times/Siena poll in June. But when third party candidates were included, Harris' lead increased, drawing 44 percent of likely voters to Trump's 43 percent. Meanwhile, aggregate polls from The Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by between 1 and 2 points. However, they also show Trump leading Harris at a smaller margin than her predecessor Biden prior to his exit. According to election analyst and statistician Nate Silver, while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College. His model shows that Trump has a 61.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris' chances stand at 38.1 percent. In the popular vote, Harris a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance. "The model starts by creating a 'snapshot' of the current state of the race based on state and national polls. Although state polls are ultimately more important in the model's logic, they've been less plentiful than national polls since Biden dropped out," Silver explained on his website. Silver gained notoriety after correctly predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.
This was a web poll. This web survey was conducted from July 26 to July 28, 2024, with 1,002 U.S. residents, aged 18 or older. A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. And then there's this, where all they weighted was the geography, not the affiliation.
Yep... nearly every piece of nonsense spewing out of Donald's mouth is false. Most of it is "Pants on Fire" false. Fact-checking Donald Trump in Chicago at National Association of Black Journalists conference https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jul/31/fact-check-donald-trump-chicago-at-nabj/
Kamala’s Honeymoon May Be Over Already It was inevitable that Kamala Harris would see a bounce in the polls after she was undemocratically anointed the Democrats’ new presidential nominee. The polls did tighten, but not enough for Kamala to overtake Trump in the polling averages or even come close in the political betting markets. We’ve been waiting anxiously for new matchup polling between Trump and Harris, and the latest Harvard-Harris CAPS poll has some devastating news for Kamala Harris. The poll shows Donald Trump leading Harris 52-48 with leaners, and 48-45 without. What’s interesting about these results is that Harris has only improved her position over Joe Biden's against Trump without leaners.