First you said I didn't understand econometrics now you are arguing that my posts are based on it.I suggest you spend a little more time understanding econometrics and the variances of it. Back to the point.You said if it were just Trump and Biden and Bidens aggregate lead was 1-2 points or in the margin of error the race was essentially even.In 2012 Obamas final aggregate lead was 0.7,but he won the popular vote by 5 million votes showing that even though his aggregate lead was 0.7 the race was not close.On the other hand Obama lead 5-2 and 8-3 in the most recent polls which suggested it was not as close as the 0.7 aggregate lead suggested which is why I put far more weight into who is leading in the most polls over the aggregate lead by number.If Biden had a 5 point aggregate lead on Trump because he lead 5-10 points in 3 polls while Trump lead by 1-2 points in 7 polls my money would be on Trump winning the popular vote because 7 polls is a better indicator than 3 outliar polls. That said,head to head Trump is up in 8 of the last 10 RCP polls.While the margin is only 1.9 it is not close imo.Trump leading in 80% of the most recent polls suggest he crushing Biden.
Careful there Tony..... when I brought up econometrics which is statistics you said: "I understand it,its just useless on this subject..." Then I said your posts are filled with polls which are based on statistics... Then you trying to make it seem I am double talking.. I am not arguing your posts are based on it...... POLLS ARE STATISTICS my friend so factually your posts ARE based on statistics...Polls are statistical surveys of sample populations with margins of errors. Then you ask me to spend more time studying a subject you just showed some confusion on... we can disagree on politics but dont twist my words...polls are statistics which you are relying on to predict 2024 election with several variables. All I said is that if you remove the independent candidates who could drop out the lead drops to within the margin of error which can make it even or a 50-50 toss up as of now. that is all...not trying to get you to vote for Biden or claim he is aweomse....but dont use polls and then claim I dont understand statistics. You want to show so badly Biden is getting blown out you are not even reading what I am saying.
There you go again.Your first post said I didn't understand econometrics and again now you are saying my post are based on it.Someone is confused but it isnt me.
you said it was usless and then you are relying on it..... which is it? thus my indication you might not understand it. And why is it hard to understand someone is using data to make a point but does not truly understand it....happens all the time.
Trump pans to put Lara Trump in charge as co-chairman so all the RNC funds can be spent on Trump's legal cases. RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel announces her resignation Former President Donald Trump has already endorsed a new slate of leaders at the Republican National Committee ahead of the general election. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rnc-chair-ronna-mcdaniel-resignation-rcna137347
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres offered a stark warning Monday about the state of the world, arguing combatants in several parts of the world are “turning a blind eye to international law” amid a “time of turbulence.” “Our world is becoming less safe by the day,” Guterres said Monday during an address to the U.N.’s Human Rights Council. “After decades of stable power relations, we are transitioning into an era of multipolarity. This creates new opportunities for leadership and justice on the international stage. But multipolarity without strong multilateral institutions is a recipe for chaos.” Guterres said the world is “changing at warp speed,” with multiple global conflicts prompting “unprecedented suffering,” in his appeal for nations to fully respect all human rights, including civil, cultural, political and social rights. Citing conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, the Republic of Congo and Gaza, Guterres called out the U.N.’s Security Council for its lack of unity when it comes to securing peace and security in these areas, especially in the Middle East. “The council’s lack of unity on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and on Israel’s military operations in Gaza following the horrific terror attacks by Hamas on 7 October, has severely — perhaps fatally — undermined its authority,” he said. “The council needs serious reform to its composition and working methods.” The remarks come just months after he invoked Article 99 of the U.N. charter for the first time in early December, when he warned of a “severe risk of collapse” of the humanitarian system in Gaza. Fighting in Gaza was triggered by Palestinian militant group Hamas’s surprise Oct. 7 assault on Israel that killed about 1,200 people and saw the kidnapping of 250 others. Israel has vowed to eliminate the threat of Hamas, which has ruled the Gaza Strip since 2007, and Israel continues to carry out a military campaign that has left more than 29,000 people dead since early October, per the enclave’s Health Ministry. “Nothing can justify [Hamas’s] deliberate killing, injuring, torturing and kidnapping of civilians, the use of sexual violence — or the indiscriminate launching of rockets towards Israel,” Guterres said. “But nothing justifies the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.” Reiterating past warnings of dwindling humanitarian aid in Gaza, Guterres called for a humanitarian cease-fire and unconditional release of all hostages. “We cannot — we must not — become numb to appalling and repeated violations of international humanitarian and human rights law,” he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend signaled a cease-fire deal is within reach, but only if Hamas gives up its “delusional claims” while negotiations are hammered out for a six-week cease-fire deal. Guterres also called out attacks on other human rights and repeated his push for debt relief in some of the poorest countries, along with greater action to fight climate change. His remarks came as the Human Rights Council begins a six-week session.