Well Biden has been tanking since Afghanistan. I have a whole thread on how his polling decline is baked in. The only development there is Trump has taken over Biden in the GE polling. My commentary is not that the polling wrong, just that the facts on the ground don’t match with perceptions. Another key indicator as you pointed out people believe the American dream is more difficult to attain than ever yet they love their governors. This goes along with the “everything is bad except for me and where I live is actually doing pretty well” mood of the country. I actually don’t recall even mentioning Biden in my comments on the polls until now. As for inflation letting up, I’m not sure that is the real problem as people seem to be doing rather well. Biden has an age issue. This is the cause of him losing polling advantage.
Don't be surprised if people assume that you are defending Biden or "his" if you cheerlead the economy in a thread about the elections. Duh. Otherwise why are you presenting it here?
People will come in with priors and agendas that I can’t help them with. And they’re just usually happy if their side is winning. Nuance isn’t for them but I’m a stickler. I accept what people believe matters a lot more than what is true when it comes to politics and voting but that doesn’t mean the actual truth doesn’t matter either. And this is where we are, at least my analysis of the polling be the data. There is a disconnect when it comes to the economy. Biden’s age and his visible lack of vigor cause people to have doubts in him as a leader and those doubts can transfer into the overall psyche. It used to be when your brother in law loses his job it’s a recession, when you lose your job it’s a depression. Now it’s everyone has a job and a chicken in every pot but people have high economic anxiety. You may discount my metric of people cutting back foretelling rough economic conditions but it’s true. And not only are people not cutting back they are going full steam ahead. Like I said the whole country is going to hell in a hand basket except for me and where I live. This Israel Hamas thing dinged Biden too just enough to give Trump a polling advantage. @Tony Stark and his ilk think siding with a terrorist organization that throws gay people off of roofs is a good idea. So there is that to be sure.
Ok. In regard to the "Hamas thing dinged Biden" I will say that is the first of the truly Rumsfeldian factors- ie. one that was unknown, unknown ..not even a consideration six months ago. However, the "giving Trump a polling advantage" should not be given too much or all the weight. It is clearly multifactorial. Biden was taking hits and the trajectory of curve was headed that way even without and before Hamas. There was/is a confluence of at least three factors that seemingly just became uglier right in that time frame as well: 1) the border situation and it coming home to roost in some of the bigger cities, 2) crime in America getting uglier, 3) people getting iffy about Ukraine and possibly 4) which is some uptick in concern about fentanyl although the lack of concern is still appalling. I don't think the Biden corruption thing hurts him with democrats but probably eats into the independents for a point a two. A factor here and factor there and pretty soon you have a couple points difference. I think all of those factors have gotten worse but it is somewhat like when you have the falling out with the girlfriend. Once the bloom is off the rose you suddenly start seeing things that you tolerated more before.
I will spare y'all a full rant on what a worthless tit Ronna McDaniel is and how pubs blew one of their legs off by not selecting Harmeet Dhillon- but I spare ya only because I have recently done several posts on it. Just boggles my mind. But in the unlikely event that you need even more examples, read on: 'Colossal failure': Ex-RNC director dings party for scheduling GOP debate on the same night as Country Music Awards The RNC is facing criticism for a variety of issues, including its handling of this year's debates. One former director dinged the RNC for holding a debate the same night as the Country Music Awards. He said the party wouldn't do that unless they're "actually trying not to reach" GOP primary voters. more at link..... unfortunately 'Colossal failure': Ex-RNC director dings party for scheduling GOP debate on the same night as Country Music Awards (msn.com)
Some of these voters polled apparently think they are at Chipotle's and they can build their own meal. They want a Trump/Nikki Haley ticket??? All fine and dandy. Unless Trump and Haley have anything to say about it. Sheesh. Voters want Trump-Haley vs. Biden-anybody but Harris America’s voters are already looking past the primaries and conventions and are sizing up who they’d like the running mates of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump to be. And if likely voters get their way, the contest would see a Trump-Nikki Haley ticket challenging Biden and any Democrat other than Vice President Kamala Harris. In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shared with Secrets on Monday, a Trump-Haley ticket won the largest percentage of all likely voters — Republicans, Democrats, independents — at 16%, followed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 12%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 10%. For Biden, 45% said “it would be better if Biden chooses someone else as his vice presidential running mate.” Just 41% said they wanted him to pair with Harris again. Voters want Trump-Haley vs. Biden-anybody but Harris (msn.com)
I would vote Haley as most likely to invoke the 25th amendment on Trump of all the potential VP picks.
Let's see how the race for second place is going... Haley draws huge crowd, new backers, in South Carolina homecoming. In South Carolina homecoming, Haley’s ‘town hall’ turns into a full-blown rally https://www.yahoo.com/news/haley-draws-huge-crowd-backers-012608449.html BLUFFTON, S.C. — Waiting for Nikki Haley inside a college gymnasium on Monday, 2,500 people packed into folding chairs and onto bleachers, dancing and waving signs to the beat of “You Give Love a Bad Name” and “Crazy Train.” Outside, a line of hundreds more in quarter-zip pullovers and sweater vests snaked around the building on a weekday afternoon, turned away by public safety officials who said the event was already at capacity. Billed as a “town hall,” Haley’s return to her home state of South Carolina on Monday instead exploded into a full-blown rally — a triumphant return for the former governor who has surpassed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in polling in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary and is running neck-and-neck with him in Iowa. “I’ll just stand outside and watch it on the screen,” said Randy Wynne, a 55-year-old from Bluffton who was among those being blocked from entering before they could even reach the door. The event — Haley’s first in the state since her fellow South Carolinian, Sen. Tim Scott, dropped out of the race earlier this month — served as a mark of Haley’s ascent in the GOP primary. But if there is anywhere critical for Haley to top the GOP frontrunner, Donald Trump, it will be in her home state. And the former president, who drew overwhelming cheers in South Carolina when he walked onto the field during the South Carolina-Clemson Palmetto Bowl game over the weekend, is still running 30 points ahead of her here. “Trump certainly has a very committed core constituency — that’s undeniable,” said Chad Walldorf, a South Carolina Republican donor who is now backing Haley after first supporting Scott. “Certainly any politician would appreciate that as a committed base.” But, Walldorf said, “The question going forward is, is that half of the Republican electorate? I think ultimately it will prove not to be.” Haley does have a burst of momentum. Following Scott’s departure and with DeSantis bleeding support, Haley is the one candidate to whom new donors and supporters are flocking in the primary’s undercard race. And for Republicans desperate to block Trump from gaining the nomination, South Carolina’s early primary may be crucial. For all the focus now on Iowa and New Hampshire, said Republican donor Frank Lavin, “South Carolina is going to assume critical importance.” Lavin, the former White House political director for Ronald Reagan, also initially supported Scott in the primary and confirmed first to POLITICO on Monday that he is now backing Haley. In addition to cutting a check, Lavin has consulted with both Haley’s policy and finance teams, is organizing a February fundraiser for her in San Francisco and will run as a Haley delegate in California. Trump, Lavin said, “has done a good job, to date, of prevailing despite a lot of headwinds, despite all sorts of concerns about his legal issues, potential health issues, electability issues.” Given that, her supporters acknowledge that a Haley success story largely depends on Trump’s actual strength with Republican primary voters being something less than what poll after poll has shown for months. “I think there’s going to be a reckoning as we get into next year, and that some of his poll numbers are overstated, and some of his results are going to be less than what the numbers currently represent,” Lavin said. The numbers so far are still overwhelmingly with Trump. His campaign zeroed in on South Carolina — the fourth early-voting state after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — from the early days of his 2024 presidential bid, announcing in January a slate of high-level endorsers that included the state’s Republican governor and senior senator, despite Haley and Scott at the time openly eyeing campaigns of their own. Trump boasts endorsements from 80 current and former elected officials in South Carolina — more than any other Republican in the race — and has mobilized supporters in the state to knock on doors and make phone calls daily, said Austin McCubbin, Trump’s South Carolina state director. McCubbin dismissed Haley’s recent momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, calling her a “paper tiger” with “a lot of tough talk.” “She has been languishing in the teens this entire time in South Carolina, and she has yet to break out,” McCubbin said. “As Tim dropped out and DeSanctimonious is proving to be the greatest thing that ever happened to the legacy of Jeb Bush's campaign memory, that support is coming our way, not hers.” Haley’s rise in national polling and in the early states is undisputed. But it remains to be seen whether her surge will do any significant damage to Trump’s lead. Inside — and outside — the packed campus recreation center, a significantly larger venue than the brewery that the campaign had initially scheduled for the Bluffton event, many in the crowd made it clear they were never considering supporting Trump in the primary, suggesting Haley’s support is not necessarily denting his. “I’m an independent, I’m interested in a woman president, and I don’t want Trump again,” said Dale Wagner of Sun City, who said she intends to vote in the state’s Republican primary for Haley, the only woman in the race. Ruth Gardner, another Sun City resident, said she was impressed by Haley’s debate performance and foreign policy experience, and appreciated that she is from South Carolina. Asked if she had at any point considered supporting Trump in the primary, Gardner’s eyes widened. Her artisan earrings moved with her head as it shook. “I didn’t vote for the man the first time because he treats women like garbage,” Gardner said. Across the gymnasium, Mary Burdy of Bluffton had a nearly identical response: “He doesn’t belong in politics.” “I’m a Republican, and I didn’t vote for him last time, and I didn’t vote for Biden,” Burdy said. Like most other Republicans seeking the nomination, Haley has resisted full-on attacks against Trump, alternating between praise for some of his past policies and criticism of his personality and leadership qualities. “The truth is, rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” Haley said Monday, using a line that she has begun to employ regularly on the campaign trail. “You know I’m right. Chaos follows him.” The crowd let out nervous laughter. Some started to applaud. Then the applause built across the room. “You look at the recent polls — Donald Trump beats Biden by three to four points. I beat Biden by 10 to 13 points,” Haley continued. The crowd erupted into cheers. But Haley’s strategy of not entirely isolating the pro-Trump wing of the Republican Party appears to be warranted. Not every Haley fan in the room on Monday was down on Trump. Russ Burdy, attending with his wife, Mary, said he is still undecided ahead of the state’s February primary, and is torn between backing the former president and Haley. He didn’t have any strict criteria about what would sway him. His wife, Mary Burdy, mouthed her analysis after his interview. “He’ll vote for her too.”
Robert De Niro. Rhymes with hero. Robert De Niro says anti-Trump speech censored at Gotham awards ceremony https://www.theguardian.com/film/20...ump-speech-censored-at-gotham-awards-ceremony Actor said that his address had been edited to remove polemic against falsifying history The relevant part begins at ~1:20. Robert De Niro said that his speech at the Gotham awards in New York was censored without his knowledge due to his anti-Trump comments. De Niro came to the stage as part of the Gotham historical icon and creator tribute for the Martin Scorsese-directed Killers of the Flower Moon, and after reading out some remarks about the film, said that the first part of his speech had been removed from the prompter. He then read the missing section of the speech from his phone, saying: “History isn’t history any more. Truth is not truth. Even facts are being replaced by alternative facts and driven by conspiracy theories and ugliness. In Florida, young students are taught that slaves developed skills which can be applied for their personal benefit. The entertainment industry isn’t immune to this festering disease. The Duke, John Wayne, famously said of Native Americans, I don’t feel we did wrong in taking this great country away from them. There were great numbers of people who needed new land and the Indians were selfishly trying to keep it for themselves.” De Niro added: “Lying has become just another tool in the charlatan’s arsenal. The former president lied to us more than 30,000 times during his four years in office, and he’s keeping up the pace in his current campaign of retribution. But with all his lies, he can’t hide his soul. He attacks the weak, destroys the gifts of nature, and shows disrespect – for example by using ‘Pocahontas’ as a slur.” De Niro then refused to thank the film’s backers, Apple, referring to the removal of part of his speech: “I don’t feel like thanking them at all for what they did. How dare they do that, actually.” Apple and the Gotham awards have been contacted for comment. De Niro has a long history of verbally attacking Trump. In a pre-election video in 2016 he said: “He’s so blatantly stupid. He’s a punk. He’s a dog. He’s a pig. A con. A bullshit artist. A mutt who doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” In 2019 he told the Guardian: “I can’t wait to see him in jail,” and in October he sent a statement to the Stop Trump Summit in New York, calling the former president “evil” and “a wannabe tough guy with no morals or ethics”.