As over-discussed, Dean Phillips is not going to win anything. But also as discussed, it is definitely inopportune for him to be out there running around campaigning against Biden right now. You have a pile of dem voters who just need one more reason to not vote for Biden and he is delivering it. Doesn't mean they are going to vote for Trump, but it does mean they lose motivation to vote at all- when Joe will need every vote. When Ross Perot ran everyone knew that he was not going to win. But many of the pundits will point out that he actually did a better job of hammering Bush senior than Clinton did which lowered enthusiasm for Bush even though many did not go on to vote for Clinton. It is thus with Dean Phillips . He is never going to win but he is perfectly capable of lowering 1 percent of Biden's turnout- which is critical. (Phillip's message is actually uglier than just campaigning against Biden. He seems to have gone off the reservation and is not just saying that the Dem party is great- but that they need someone other than Biden. He saying that if you are jewish, it sucks to be democrat. So his messaging has already gone downhill in the last week) Dean Phillips says it’s 'very difficult' to be a Jewish member of Congress in Democratic Party Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) discussed the difficulty of being a Jewish member of Congress while calling out far-left House Democrats for their response to the Israel-Hamas war, citing a lack of “progressive love.” “Being a Jewish member of Congress in the Democratic caucus is very difficult right now, you can imagine,” Phillips said Friday evening on Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO. “There is seemingly a lack of progressive love when it comes to our doorstep, and it’s problematic.”
Here is Cohn’s analysis of the poll. Seems about right. What I will say is that a blue Wisconsin and red Michigan is kind of hard to compute.
Michigan has a huge Arab population,they wont forgive the Genocide Joe. There has never been a path for an incumbent -15 points underwater a year before the election,I don't think there will be one this election either.
That poll is fine and dandy as a snapshot in time but presupposes that it will be a Trump versus Biden match with no significant third party impact (such as above 15-20%). Also the first (but not the last) truly Rumsfeldian factor has arrived- ie something that was not even remotely contemplated or factored in six months ago. All of this "Genocide Joe" and antisemitism explosion is new and different and going to have a major impact. MORE TO COME.
Every black person I know voted for Biden in 2020.Nearly every black person I know will not be voting for Biden in 2024.