El Nino update ( Wednesday 06/20/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jun 22, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc37ec102e01380ab1c813013e .


    Wednesday 06/20/2012

    El Nino update

    Our latest calculation of the sea surface temperature departure in the equatorial eastern pacific for the first half of June stands at a plus 1.6 degrees celsius. This is much warmer than the plus 0.8 observed in May and now clearly puts us into El Nino territory.
    We are also seen the atmospheric measure of the pacific coming around with the 30 day running mean of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) standing around the minus 8 category which is the minimal value the Australians place on the SOI to put you into an El Nino.

    Despite all this the Australians seem to be holding back on declaring an El Nino underway. In their latest update on Tuesday June 19 they comment that the tropical pacific warming continues. That sea surface temperatures are more than 1 degrees celsius above normal in some areas of the eastern equatorial pacific. The 30 day running mean of the SOI is approaching minimal El Nino values. And that the trade winds have weakened and are close to normal, also indicative of El Nino. However they conclude that El Nino will likely begin by the end of August which is what the models are showing.

    I would have to say that we are now in an El Nino. During a "normal " El Nino much of the Midwest during the summer experiences near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall with the driest weather being in the northwest.. Clearly we are not following that pattern at this time with the driest weather in the eastern midwest and the wettest in the northwest. This has been more due to the effects of the blocking pattern in Canada. However as blocking effects tend to diminish in summer while the El Nino impact could strengthen, could this imply a expansion of dryness in the Midwest as we go into July and August along with more persistence of heat? I think the odds are just as likely for this to happen as opposed to a shrinking of the dry areas in the Midwest during that time.


    Posted at 11:18AM CDT 06/20/12 by Mike Palmerino


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.
  2. jem


    I used to surf and followed this el nino, la nina thing closely. El nino meant big surf... then it didnt. It meant drought in San Diego, then it did not.

    I think all they can really say is the weather may seem different to some areas.