El Nino Delayed ( Friday 07/13/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

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    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc3865298c01387f93dd630122 .


    Friday 07/13/2012

    El Nino Delayed

    The longer this Drought of 2012 has gone on, it seems like there’s been more discussion about what’s happening in the Pacific related to El Nino. That’s not a surprise—everyone now, not just in the ag world, is looking for some way for this withering event to end.
    And, for awhile in late June and early July, measurements used to track the El Nino-La Nina state of affairs gave the impression that things were starting to click for the development of El Nino, with the hope that jet stream winds fueled by El Nino would start to sweep in from the west, with at least some rain; preferably, lots of it. Temperatures were warming up in the eastern part of the ocean; and the barometric feature called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was indicating a move into the “minus” category.

    A reminder here that the SOI tracks the relationship between barometric readings on the island of Tahiti and at Darwin in far northern Australia. A quick definition of this relationship: a consistent “plus” value points to the Tahiti barometric trend being stronger than on Tahiti. Conversely, a consistent “minus” reading indicates a stronger Darwin barometric trend versus Tahiti. Values of either +8.0 or -8.0 or greater in either positive or negative direction on a 30-day running average point to either La Nina (positive) or El Nino (negative).

    However—research has shown that for either El Nino or La Nina to be a factor in the Midwest weather pattern, the SOI values need to be at the -8.0 (El Nino) or +8.0 (La Nina) on the 90-day calculation. So it takes a real sustained move in that pressure relationship out in the ocean to truly make a difference in what happens with Midwest weather.

    Now, back to the trends. At the end of June, the SOI monthly calculation seemed to point to a bona fide developing El Nino, with a monthly figure of -10.2. And in late June, the barometer really seemed to be cranking into El Nino as well, with these daily SOI numbers: June 24 -41.19; June 25 -49.35; June 26, -46.96. The readings June 27 and 28 were also suggestive of and El Nino trend at -34.44 on the 27th and a -19.96 reading on the 28th of June.

    But that trend has not continued. Almost this entire week, from July 8-13, those daily SOI readings have been positive, and the past 3 days have seen daily SOI values of +12.25 on Wednesday July 11; +18.22 Thursday July 12; and +15.82 Friday July 13. (Note—the SOI values are calculated and catalogued by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.)

    The result is that the 30-day SOI number is actually LESS than the strict-definition El Nino threshold at -7.2. And the 90-day reading is only about half that at -3.4.

    Things can change quickly, even in the ocean temperature and pressure categories (relatively speaking of course). But the past couple weeks’ developments suggest that El Nino’s presence is either very weak or perhaps not really going on yet in the Pacific basin. And, most troubling for the interior U.S., the timetable for a real El Nino effect has been put back compared to what I perceive to be the hopes of at least a few in agriculture for sustained El Nino-related rains during late July and August.

    El Nino prospects were featured prominently in my recent series of article on the midsummer weather outlook, and I’ll conclude this blog posting with this comment from the article that dealt with El Nino. The comment is from Dr. Dennis Todey, South Dakota state climatologist, who did the research into the El Nino-La Nina time frame for Midwest weather impact during his grad student days at Iowa State University:

    "I don't look for El Nino patterns to show up on time to help things out. It looks more like fall—September into October," he said. "And right now this El Nino does not look like a very strong one, so that is not a big winner for us."


    Twitter @BAndersonDTN

    Posted at 4:03AM CDT 07/13/12 by Bryce Anderson


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.