Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by scriabinop23, May 7, 2008.
??? Market not ready to sell, is it?
Goldman just announced that oil will hit between $150-$200. They won't let it fall that easily or quickly. Inventories up 5.7 million barrels, US dollar up 0.86% as of writing yet, we are seeing an increase in price again today. Goldman is just too good.
Would love to see the price of oil come crashing down. Gasoline prices are nearly double the US average price where I am and steadily increasing.
Am short QM at $122.5 with stop at 125.5. Waiting for nice big correction.
Going to post a poll... see what consensus here is.
$125 by next week end or even this week. ~$124 in after hours. Been trying to get long for the last $10 but am not chasing at these levels. If this doesn't come down soon, possibly $150 by June end. Blowoff top in the making. Last weeks EIA had same supply increase #'s and we sold off $3 in an hour.
you guys are right on...HUGE OIL bubble about to burst...like Gold did...
Schork usually is bearish.
Now he's bullish.
Watch the video. I honestly am not following him. First he says refiners aren't demanding much oil, signaled by low refinery utilization.
Then he says (gasoline) imports are up, signaling incredible crude oil demand.
Then he says there are doubts to refinery capacity.
How the hell can there be doubts to refiner capacity? Last yr the refiners were fine running at above 90%+ despite countless fires. Note how none of that news about perpetual cracker shutdowns/fires this year?
We're running at 85% and have a huge excess capacity ready to fill in the event driving season demand is high.
What the hell am I missing here?
The market is responding by pressuring cracks down, crude going higher. Quite the opposite of his suggestion.
This latest report suggests a well supplied crude market. Extra 400kb/d of crude and 200kb/d of gasoline this week.
.... All spin. If refiners are stockpiling because they are unable to process and indeed don't have 15% spare capacity, then the trade here is to buy the crack spreads.