Discussion in 'Trading' started by drukes1234, Nov 27, 2008.
It's always fun to put things into context amidst amazing panic...
the selloff doesn't seem like much. it can easily regain it in a year like in 2003.
For some reason your chart is off on prices. Those SPY lows in 02/03 were all above 76 not closing in on 70.
Remember the phrase "secular bear market?" I got so sick of that in '03 my stomach churns a little remembering it.
If you look over bear markets over the past 100 years you tend to have an initial dramatic sell-off (I'm not talking days or weeks I'm talking months/years) and the low from that sell-off is rarely penetrated by much and the market then rallies but it usually does take anywhere form 15-20 years to take out the previous high convincingly (which was established in 2000) so we could be churning along testing highs (14,000) failing or maybe even surpassing a bit, it's not an exact science but we probably will not see a 20 handle on the dow before let's say .... 2020.. and flame me all you want but we will see dow 50k within most our lifetimes, assuming most of you are below your mid 40's
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