This will be one of the great lessons of the market, how absolutely inefficient the market really is. There is a greater than 50/50 chance the brotherhood takes over Egypt. If they can take over Egypt all regimes are susceptible. We are on the brink of an iranian empire stretching from north africa to afghanistan and the market rallies almost every single day. If you can hang in there, get short. It's a high probability trade.
Look at DRYS, the world economy has been tanking for months, add to that unrest in the ME, rising Oil and it's not a pretty sight. Socialism is melting down world wide.. possibly all we are seeing is the failure of socialism Egyptian style.. I think I read once that a very large part of the population of Egypt got a stipend from the Government, maybe that money is getting priced out of the market for basic goods.. not to mention that food is coming into short supply, Mubarak might be able to ride his time of troubles out if the protesters are out of supplies... and possibly he could cut off their welfare checks.. were I him I'd signal the upraised middle digit to Obama and try to ride it out...
Trading what you think will only take you to the poor house, stick to what price is doing and ignore events or world events. If the event is truly catastrophic price will reflect it like nothing else. NAD
alternatively, Egypt is really not a big deal and the efficient market reflects just that. looks like the main inefficiency happened on Friday while everybody was still digesting the news.
Gold went absolutely vertical at midday. It's selling off a bit now, but that was pretty obviously a reaction to the ominous preparations the Egyptian gov't was taking to retake Tahrir Square. Of course, if the latest proposal to get Mubarak out gets some traction and pacifies the protesters, it will collapse just as fast as it went up. Some part of the dollar's rise today was I'm sure also safe-haven buying. I saw the stock indexes rise today, and was a bit bemused. Perhaps they're looking a bit farther forward, and discounting heavily any idea Egypt will blow? Maybe, but if they're wrong, the reaction will be interesting.
Your analysis is not correct. Egypt isn't majority Shi'ite, unlike Iraq, and no Egyptian regime would ever take direction from Iran. Egypt considers itself the leader of the Middle East, and Sunnis consider Shi'ites to be idolators. The Muslim Brotherhood is Sunni, and has nothing whatsoever to do with Iran, and considering their hardline Sunni stance, would be more likely than the average Egyptian to consider Shi'ites to be idolators.
If Egypt closes off the Suez, it will be such a threat to the Israelis - and to the US, you'll see the CIA go in and we'll have another country in the Middle East to feed and people to educate.
That's partially true. You can anticipate good news but you have to wait until the bad news is actually out. The market is efficient on the way up but grossly inefficient on the way down.
How would closing the Suez harm the US? I think less than 10% of world oil goes through there and none of it for US. Saudi's would be upset as oil is all they have. No export=no income. It is beginning to become apparent that most Islamic countries simply cannot feed themselves. These countries have birth rates that far exceed their ability to provide for the people. They have the potential to implode from within. SD