Thanks for the heads up on those. I have been watching them as well and although they appear to be strengthening they still do not YET meet my requirements for an uptrend and appear to be consolidating from recent down moves. However, miners and XME and FCX all appear to be improving and may be setting up to take off upward soon. But GDX still appears the weakest of any of these. Thats why I am in CENX Long and GDX short. I am taking a hard look now at FCX as a LONG position but its not quite looking good enough for me. I just find it interesting that GDX and GLD have been so weak as the $USD has fallen. All input is appreciated.
Glad I decided to raise some cash. BOX taking a big hit today. All sectors taking a hit including bonds. Only sectors doing well are commodities EXCEPT precious metals, so OIL and copper/steel, and aluminum doing well. Oh financials doing ok as well today. Having said that, the precious metals may play catch up soon so I think its too soon to celebrate on GDX SHORT although it seems to be paying off nicely today. Will keep an eye on that one. Still expect a VERY BIG move in GDX soon.
GDX starting to breakdown further. Down >2% so far today. CENX starting to reverse from UP 2% to down about 0.5%. I have some signs that the market in general is starting to be top heavy and looking to correct. No sell signals on SPY yet but we are close. So moving my stop up to $14.84 on CENX. That has a small position anyway so not much gain there so far...but GDX on the other hand is a full 1% position and starting to pay well.
Joined you in cenx . long july calls 16 strike at .79. looks to be closing over resist at 15.7 and exposure for post july 4th rally.
CENX lost some but small position with wide stop there so basically peanuts made and peanuts lost....no meaningful change to the account. However, GDX down 2% today. Have a full 1% position on that with a relatively tight stop so did quite well today but expect much more out of that move. Signals showing me I am obviously in the direction of the CURRENT trend. Like I said earlier these coiled spring situations EXPLODE and this was a slow fall down the hill today. I expect lots of volatility in GDX soon. The market has a short term oversold condition as does GDX so a bounce is possible in the next few days and we will probably get a shake out of weak longs and shorts here in most sectors. Will keep my stops at current levels. I still think GDX is going lower but will not be satisfied I am on the correct side of this trade until I see that explosive move I am expecting. The SPY is barely above a SELL signal for my trading methods and also short term oversold This suggests we could see a bounce tomorrow and/or Monday. No new positions until things shake out a bit more. If I get stopped out will remain in cash on all positions for now.
Looked for new trades tonight and really see NO NEW good trades based on my search criteria. Only thing of note is that MOST of the gold mining stocks are now good shorts based on my criteria whereas before it was just GDX and AEM. May now look for opportunity to add another 0.25% RISK to my current GDX SHORT. Will take that decision day by day.
I know I said no trades for a few days but I am seeing a rotation into banks and especially large US Banks as well as further evidence of rotation into all commodities EXCEPT Gold. Looking to add to SHORT GDX if the opportunity arises. Looking to add to LONG CENX if the opportunity arises. BAC LONG order placed. LONG @ $23.83 and Stop @ $23.13. Not sure it will get that low but will buy anywhere between $23.83 to $24.29 if hourly charts start to turn higher. The closer the position is to my stop the more shares I buy so looking to be patient here and hopefully get my fill price today or Monday. Will post charts to look at sectors heating up later.
So, I just reviewed this past weeks charts and it appears that based on my TA the market had lower volume as expected for a Holiday but that some of the recent decisions in Europe are apparently effecting how people are allocating money and a shift appears to be taking place. Much of the past week appears to have been selling to raise CASH and the latter portion of the week it appears that the CASH is being put to work in some new sectors. I suspect this may continue this coming week and may result in S&P and US Markets in general to churn more sideways and possibly increase volatility but overall be flat or up for the week. The reason I say this is that money appears to be moving out of Utilities and Bonds and other safe havens including the $USD into Financials, Emerging markets, and commodities in general EXCEPT precious metals. The Emerging market charts that are heating up are Latin America, India, much of Europe, some Asian countries except Japan & China. But money appears to be exiting many US based stocks and entering commodity based stocks especially international companies like CAT, HUN. Most all oil stocks and oil services stocks also had a good week as did most all metals EXCEPT precious metals. Most all precious metals stocks fell and nearly all copper, tin, nickel, aluminum, and steel stocks had a good week. Despite the week that suggests a bit of a market top with significant losses in the S&P on a couple of days the S&P ended down only 0.55%, but Nasdaq was down 2% and Dow was down only 0.21% (Dow is made up of more US based International Large Cap Stocks). Interestingly, the DOW TRANSPORTS were SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER last week. Anyone familiar with Dow Transportation average knows that the transportation average most commonly precedes the Market Indices and that the Rail Roads comprise a significant portion of the Transportation Average. The rails carry,.....COMMODITIES! Now, its all coming together to paint a TA based picture that money is moving to all commodities and metals except precious metals and moving into more international stocks. People appear to be fleeing growth and seeking VALUE so under represented sectors and countries are starting to outperform our US Markets. I expect this rotation to continue next week and the first part of July. This is the advantage of being small and nimble. I can move much faster than the big money can. Below I have several charts showing TA evidence of how I came to my conclusions. Charts: 1) DAILY Chart of Dow Transportation Average as a RATIO compared to S&P. Shows relative performance of it to the S&P and I like to see that MACD is again curling UP and ABOVE ZERO suggesting that Transports since Dec 2016 were underperforming the S&P and just last several days started to breakout of the underperformance to now out perform. NOT an argument for a market top. In fact this is evidence the market will continue higher. 2) The next 2 charts are Weekly & Daily Charts of Transportation Index itself. Notice on WEEKLY that it has been on an uptrend just as the market in general has since Jan. 2016 but has been in mostly a sideways trading range since late Nov. 2016 to now. Weekly MACD is curling up and above ZERO just in last couple weeks and this coincides EXACTLY with the Daily MACD curling up and above ZERO (pink ovals). Also bounce occured around EMA 39 and why I tend to like EMA 39. On the Daily you can see the MACD is also useful to draw trend lines on because when there is a trendline break on MACD this often coincides with a new trend forming and seems to often coincide with a break above the EMA 39 and price REMAINS above EMA 39 showing strength in the move. This ALSO happened simultaneously on the Daily chart during end of May and early June as it BOUNCED off the EMA 39 on the Weekly chart. This suggests the longerterm weekly trend is INTACT and starting to pick up steam to the upside. 3) Weekly/Daily/Hourly charts of BAC but this chart are similar to most all International bank charts like JPM and C. Recent dropping $USD and rising Interest Rates as well favor big International Bank stocks. This chart shows a weekly Uptrend since July 2016 and the huge POP that occured after the US Election. Since that time BAC and Finnacials have been mostly in a trading range. This charts suggests that BAC is breaking out to start another major leg UP in the Up trend. Notice the Pennant (Blue lines) that formed on weekly charts since Dec 2016 to now. MACD also curling UP and above ZERO. Notice the since the peak of BAC in late Feb 2017 that the weekly MACD curled down but was STILL above ZERO. Price just mostly went sideways. This is one form of price and MACD "divergence".....price remains relatively high but MACD is falling. Because the MACD is above ZERO the trend is still intact but not as strong when MACD is falling (pennant price action), but NOW MACD is bouncing and price bounced off of trend line support and close to EMA 39. Pennants are BULLISH formations and the "pole" of the pennant helps determine the target of the next major move. The pole extends from $11.87 to $25.72. We will call this about $14 move. So the TARGET price for BAC based on this TA is the recent pennant low + $14 = $22.07 + $14 = ~$36!!!!. Thats a 50% return projected based on this TA. Now you know why I placed a BUY order on BAC on Friday. Not yet filled but we are close. I could buy at the current price but the closer I can buy to support the more shares I can buy based on my rules and the more profit I can make. Daily chart looks similar to weekly with MACD Curling UP and above ZERO at the EXACT same moment WEEKLY is and last is the HOURLY Chart. Notice the Hourly chart also shows a MACD rise above ZERO at nearly the EXACT SAME TIME as the daily and weekly charts. Hourly charts change more rapidy than daily obviously so MACD is falling and I helps me look for a better price to get in the trade. Notice EMA 39 is $23.87 which is also close to a recent breakout on the hourly chart and why I chose $23.83 as my BUY price. We will see how this trade works out. I know this is a lot to go thorough. But anyone willing to put in the time and effort into looking at hundreds of charts a day can see what I see. In my opinion TA allows a MUCH faster analysis of a stock than any Fundamental analysis and it takes what people in the market think about the fundamentals RIGHT NOW into account. Fundamentals never worked well for me because the analysis is based off of Quarterly earning and you are trading baswed on 3 month old info. We will see if I am correct. So, now just time to try and maximize profit from this analysis. Trade what you see, Eganon
Just checking on past charts I have made and ran across this chart. I have not checked this chart in over a year since I made it in early 2016. It is a MONTHLY chart of Gold. Notice that we are at the upper end of a pennant flag formation on the monthly chart. Pennant flags are BULLISH patterns. So this suggests that Gold will eventually breakout of this pennant and go on a explosive tear UPWARD in price. However,....USUALLY there are several back and forth swings of price from one extreme to another on the pennant before a pennant breakout. We have only had the extremes touched 3 times before a complete counter move. This is a rule of mine not something you will hear about elsewhere. Also, notice that the monthly MACD is curling DOWN and about to cross ZERO with NO Bullish Divergence on the Monthly MACD. So, I expect that price will break down further to the lower end of this pennant flag before bouncing and taking off on a potential multi month/multi year BULL market in Gold. We will see if I am right but I would expect a Bullish Divergence in MACD with a higher low on the Monthly MACD compared to the -75 shown by the flat blue line on the MACD chart. We now have 4 time frames ALL curling DOWN for the MACD and a red candle and selling increasing on ALL 4 timeframes. This lends further evidence that my current SHORT GDX trade is the correct side to trade. This also gives a price target of around $950-$1050 for Gold to reach before we bounce. Thats about 20% drop in Gold prices!! Trade what you see, Eganon
EG, I believe tech analysis works in particular, on stock markets. There is a number of studies support that price/volume analysis works. Having said that I haven't seen this kind of active journal for a while. Good job , EG