You are right that many don't care about the true value, but as I mentioned many many times here that is NOT necessary. Arbitrage will ensure it. That's what drives price discovery, not CEOs and the others you list.
As I said, those assumptions are irrelevant. If a news comes out, EMH doesn't say the price will shift to the new level and just stay there. You can have very varying opinions and there can be a lot of volatility around the new mean level. But the new mean level should be very close to the new true value.
For some people, you dont' have to be very old to understand things around you. It might have taken you a bit longer, but why should it take me as long??? Yes, I was born in 76, but I did understand what was going on and what wasn't. As a further proof of it, you once mentioned that you disagree with you dad on it (and I agree). Well, your dad did live in that era and knows it better than you. My opinions happens to coincide with his, which is a further indication to you that yes, I wasn't just playing with toys growing up...
See, that's our difference right there. To you, they fucked up means they what they did was really wrong. Just as the collapse of the USSR is proof to you it was not viable. The truth is any thing can happen to anybody/any country. Some are not necessarily someone's fault and are totally force major. A good basketball player may be a super star than jump and break his neck and be permanently disabled. Well, maybe it was a bit his fault, maybe he was not as careful as he should have been. To you he fucked up and didn't know what he was doing. To me, I pity the poor fellow and think one should learn from his mistake and use that along with the strength and good points he exibited. Just b/c something that seemed to work got scewed up doesnt' mean it can't work at all or is bad inherently. If you blindly judge things in life that way, you will miss a lot of opportunities. Dude, you remind me of my wife. To her if I break a super cool wine glass, it is my fault no matter what happened, whether it was an accident or not. She just cares about what happened and not why and how. That may be a useful rule of thumb to make quick decisions in some cases, but doing it in all cases will result in many misjudgements.
OK, time for me to trade. So I pass the baton of defending EMH to... Heck, I'm the only one on that side... Well, enjoy ripping it apart folks. I'm sure you'll find the process very rewarding in theory. I hope the markets are as inefficient as you think and that you do make your money trading. My guess is that it will be a very bloody battle and not many will survive. Many of those who thought the market was blatantly inefficient will perish proving what was obvious to them. Too many to think that the market is really inefficient See ya.
Who ever said inefficient = easy? Your assumptions highlight the point that intelligence and common sense have no more correlation than money and taste... To sum up, you're a socialist embracing the height of capitalism, and a trader who supports a theory that concludes trading is pointless... Maybe if it doesn't work out you can become a jewish muslim pig farmer.
Here is the flaw as I see it: Schools teach this premise -- "The markets are efficient." First, this is assuming that all participants of the market belond to the same set. This set includes equal acess to information, equal trading platforms and speed, equal pattern recognition, etc. However, this is not the case. Therefore, the original premise is flawed and must be adjusted to, "The markets are efficient to the majority of traders." This, in my opinion, has a fair shot of being true. There is a minority of traders that will always be able to exploit the market in some fashion and therefore make them to appear inefficient.
does it? i guess by "exploit the market" you mean "making money" right? the thing is, the market doesn't appear "inefficient" to me at all. i have no idea what it means for the market to be inefficient. i wouldn't know the difference between what an "efficient" market looks like and what an "inefficient" market looks like if it slapped me in the head... do u mean that i see some stock priced at X and think "oh no no no, that sucker should be priced at X+2, that one's definitely a buy"? cos i definitely don't do that.. also, i'm still waiting for someone to explain to me what it means to "beat the market". does it mean taking any money at all from the market? what is the benchmark i must compare my performance to, in order to know if i've beaten the market?