Educate me: What's a good way to calculate risk? What about Sharpe?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bankroll, Jan 3, 2014.

  1. SIUYA

    SIUYA

    Dont be fooled into the simplicity of extrapolating out numbers, especially when it comes to percentages. It can all get out out of whack very quickly and unless you have the raw data most numbers you will get will be from marketing documents.
    ....and easy quick and dirty way to see if an extrapolation makes sense is this....
    Lets say a fund returns 10% a year over ten years....would you expect to make 100% a year if you had invested in it with 10 times leverage. A: probably not as there may have been a drawdown that sent your investment to zero at some stage.
    So essentially it does not make sense to use the numbers like this.


    Measures like the sharpe ratio etc are mainly good for comparing funds/investments. eg; Which is riskier of two funds that essentially invest in the same way or instruments and have similar returns.....one with the higher or lower sharpe ratio.
    Then you should look further into why. Etc.

    All these measures are good for ranking as a starting point.

    (Disclaimer: I am not massively into the maths, and rather use rules of thumb. i understand most of where the numbers come from but feel its best to also understand their limitations in the real world. (i have a funny story how I proved something in an option model wrong once using common sense and simple maths - but no one believed me until we had a mathematician prove it first as people can get too caught up in this sometimes) If you really like the maths, quant threads or forums would be best).
     
    #21     Jan 12, 2014
  2. The Sharpe's ratio would not change.
     
    #22     Jan 12, 2014