That's not true. As a former poker player you don't have defined edge because the players are constantly changing around you. If you continue playing in the same way or style and don't adjust your going to be beat. I.E. if you played 10% of your hands in 2004 in cash games in 2004 you were probably able to rake it in until 2006 when the poker landscape began change.
you obviously don't know much about poker. my edge is determined when i get my money in better then my opponent, and doing so over a long period of time. for instance my pocket pair vs his two overs all in pre flop gives me a 52-55% chance of winning the hands based on the cards. this is a definable edge getting my money in good. in trading you can get your money in better then your opponent as well, but from my knowledge there is no way to put an actual percentage on it like the example i just gave where i have a 52-55% chance of winning the hand (trade).
You said that Black Swans occur on a 1 second time frame in SI... Not sure how one could capitalize one that in the realm of trading with a statistical edge. Why i asked if were talking about trading or gambling here but hell if you can make it work all the power to you
The circumstance you describe is certainly an easily calculated edge. But how do you know he has two overs? Might he not also have a pocket pair and might that pair be 10's to your 9's. And might not he be sitting behind you so that you do not even get to see his bet before your first decision point? Given that there is no ante to see a "hand" in trading nor do I need to vary my play to maintain a table image (allowing me to play more quality every time I pull the trigger ... not just sometimes) I think it is easier to have an edge in trading. I spent 10 weeks living in AC (essentially the summer of 2007) and, given my accommodations were modest, I covered expenses almost to the penny but no better. The problem with poker is if you are playing 5/10 NL it starts to get hard to get consistently faded when you have strength unless you are VERY good at mixing it up. In 1/2 they fade almost every time but the stakes do not warrant the time.
Probabilities based on price pattern recognition tend to be static. Probabilities based on indicator settings do not tend to be static. I actually name some of my pattern recognition setups based on Poker hand nicknames (American Airlines, King Kongs, etc)...this helps me associate a probability of success with the pattern...which also helps me determine my bet size....just like in poker
Took the answer is simple there is no such thing as an edge in the real sense of the word , here what i wrote in another thread :
the word is used loosely. Kind of comical. Helps losers think they are not just gambling. I know a stock trader. Never had a real job. Raised a family in a nice neighborhood on nothing more than analysing past historical data. But he never claimed to have an edge.
Thius is why i prefer to not daytrade. BACKUP pLAN. I swing trade and have a day job, no matter how much drudgery the day job is, having it is a good backup plan to black monday. It is probably the best backup plan one can have to a black monday event. Plus it sounds better to other people when they ask what you do for a living.
hey baby, I got real edge everytime I buy it goes up and everytime I sell it goes down I am like edge master I got this edge thing down Nobody can stop me now Because I got edge Know what I'm talkin about? You gotta have edge Can't trade without it If you don't have some Get some Everybody should get some edge Edge is cool It's the new thing EDGE: Never leave home without it and don't forget to check out new Edge Shampoo Guaranteed to put that life back in your dating routine If you ever had a winning trade, you may have edge sign up for our free questionnaire Everybody wants it Everybody needs it EDGE it's what trading is all about