The 50% reference was a stretch on my part. However it is relatively common to find yourself in a test of your first sample of 20 trades find a method to be accurate 75%+ of the time, the go out of sample or walk forward to find that it reduces rapidly to the 60's. Of course if it indeed can hold then there is every reason to trade this. The whole accuracy thing seems relative to your target and stop size as well. I can definitely find patterns that lead to 90%+ accuracy if my target is small enough, but I've not yet been able to do this on setups with stops that equal the target or less. If one could do that consistently (90%+) you'd own a country in short order, assuming you could scale the method. Even if you couldn't, you could be very aggressive with your betsizing and grow rapidly. I'll definitely check the markets you suggest. I do tend to believe some are harder to trade than others, and I've always heard index futures were the toughest, or some of the toughest anyway. Hey, but if I can learn there I can learn anywhere, right? Well, that's assuming that was true to begin with.
+1. New2TheGame - That is what I put in my first post, which was well before Jack starting venting his exhaust gases on your thread: There is also a large group of traders here, usually newbies, who are dazzled by Jack Hershey (spydertrader), SCT and his ilk. You will not likely find any successful traders here on ET for a while, that think Jack is anything other than a guru-worship desirist. Stay away from Jack. He is a drama queen, posing as a guru. He lives to confuse the minds of newer traders. Your great great grandparents probably know more about trading equities than Jack. So do 75% of the original Neanderthals
Does Jack Hershey play a mean fiddle? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2697859> <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1aZLw_KBdqc&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1aZLw_KBdqc&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
Look it's pretty simple, don't over-think things. Just know your market inside and out. Know all the reasons why prices would move, know the players, the time-frames, the data points. Know where you fit in within all that. Know enough to deserve to make money -- does that make sense? Think you can just walk into a ring with a pro boxer and take a few rounds from him without ever having taken a punch in your life? That's pretty much the analogy for those starting out. I see all these threads from very intelligent people who are taking their first stabs at this business, they look at the market from UP THERE, rather than DOWN HERE where all the action takes place. Are you planning on making money from trading (ie, buying lower/selling higher), or are you going to write a book? If it's trading, then your primary focus by far should be PRICE, cuz that's the one and only place where your fingers will ever actually make contact with the market. Where your decision-making impacts both your account and the market itself. Why bother starting anywhere else? The immediacy of trading just gets completely lost in all the theoretical mumbo-jumbo of what "should" work. Efficiency to a trader is pretty much bs; what matters more is how much inefficiency your account can handle before you become just another agent of said inefficiency getting blown out of your positions. When you look at prices on the screen, think about what it is exactly that is making these prices move. Where does that impetus come from? Those are the questions that should be asked. "Edges" boil down to a simple formula: time and effort. As mentioned earlier, eventually, you'll just know it when you see it. It's the recognition of an opportunity, for whatever reason, given the "wisdom" you've accumulated from your past experience. That's pretty much the whole ball of wax. BUT -- you need to recognize that face of opportunity before the majority acts on it. You are competing with other traders who have done nothing but watch prices move, day in, day out, for YEARS; what are you going to bring to the table that they don't know about? What is it that will get you to pull the trigger faster than they will (and in the right direction)? Your competition knows what you are going to do before you even realize you're thinking about doing it. An "efficient" market just means there are more f*ckers out to get you and each other, and therefore by the time you are pulling the trigger to enter a trade most others are already on their way out faster than you can say zerosum.
I see your point. I will spend some time with a chosen market and see if I can get a real feel for the for the movements. I suppose the aim there is to try to intuitively connect to the market's rhythm. Thanks for the input.
this isn't the horseback riding of your great great grandfather there is so much bullshit that it ain't funny even OP could be just a guy working for ET to get the discussion and number of posts going world of trading just like CNN and FOX is the world of spin and deceit those who manage through it are not average people that's for sure
I can definitely understand this level of skepticism. I think I've demonstrated I come from a similar camp. I can assure you, i'm just a dude trying to find my way due to all the BS you mention is out there. I feel there is so much to sift through, it's amazing anyone finds their way, regardless of intellectual prowess. That said, anything you're willing to share is welcome! Thanks,
Illiquid posted the only info that really made any sense. There is one factor you aren't completely grasping, and that's the importance of an inefficient market. Trading ES or something similar is like becoming a race car driver and heading straight for Nascar. You are competing against the best there are and you will lose. On the other hand equities provide situations every day that you can at least attempt to exploit (opg's, moc's, error trades, volume climaxes, breakouts etc). In more volatile times ('07-08) equities became extremely inefficient and edges were abundant, especially in the reversion category. You are welcome to try to trade any market you like, but I believe the success rate in equities to be multiples higher than futures, commodities, and options.
In time, you will be able to establish specific rules to exploit market behavior. Speaking only for myself, I would hesitate to rely on intuition until those rules are established, tested and firmly in place. I'm curious to see how illiquid responds, since your post was directed at him. Oh, as for your earlier reference to a couple of authors, I think Gallacher has some very good things to say, although he is, in my opinion, a tad too negative on TA. By TA, I refer to its most basic form rather than much of the nonsense that passes for it. As for Williams, I would suggest you keep your distance. Most thinking people do.