Edge: Should it work on them all

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Rapunzel, Jan 17, 2022.

  1. Rapunzel

    Rapunzel

    Looks like there is a reasonable edge and I should just accept that is will not work on every pair. But it would probably be wise to understand why the outcomes are as they are.
     
    #11     Jan 17, 2022
  2. MACD

    MACD

    Absolutely
     
    #12     Jan 17, 2022
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    30 FX pairs, many of which will be trending and many consolidating - how can you expect to develop an edge that at any one time will be effective over all of them?
     
    #13     Jan 17, 2022
  4. Rapunzel

    Rapunzel

    Thanks for the post. No it's not for every moment. It is for particular moments on each pair; breakout trading on a pair for example. So trade 3 different moments currently:

    - break out
    - breakout continuation
    - reversals
     
    #14     Jan 17, 2022
  5. Rapunzel

    Rapunzel

    .....mean reversion....rather
     
    #15     Jan 17, 2022
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    30 FX pairs is a lot.
    it doesn't mean the more FX pairs you trade, the more opportunities there will be.
    Just focus on the major FX pairs

    a decade ago, things were very different;
    there were major currency wars.
    you can literally trade with the eyes closed and yet still earn $$$.

    Look at Brexit news.
    When there was Brexit news, GBP was very tradable.
    Now it is over.

    Nowadays, even if you open your eyes extra-wide, it doesn't mean
    you can earn $$$.
    Nowadays FX moves just a little & Opportunities come rarely.
    Factor in all these and also have an understanding of macro fundamentals.


    If you just use TA without any consideration of macro fundamentals,
    don't expect to earn $$$.

    I used to day trade major FX a decade ago.
    Nowadays, I rarely trade major FX as there are other better things to trade.
     
    #16     Jan 17, 2022
    Rapunzel likes this.
  7. Rapunzel

    Rapunzel

    Where are you active now. Which markets.
     
    #17     Jan 17, 2022
  8. maxinger

    maxinger

    various Asian/European/US index futures,
    commodities like copper, oil, gold, NG, and perhaps bonds
     
    #18     Jan 17, 2022
  9. easymon1

    easymon1

    you probably on this oil tonight?
     
    #19     Jan 17, 2022
  10. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    Although one eliminates noise by using the 1 hour bars, one also eliminates relevant data.
    For instance if something happens to change your ultimate P/L (significantly over a significant number of trades) within a 1 hour bar, when does that happen? How does that happen? That is the data you need and is eliminated along with the "noise".

    Causal relationships are difficult to find with a lot of noise. Assume "noise reduction" is a process that needs its own tuning.

    KISS is no excuse for doing due diligence. It comes AFTER all the details are studied and understood, not before.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2022
    #20     Jan 17, 2022
    Leob and SunTrader like this.