Has anyone ever attended one of the Trading Tribe meetings? His website is www.seykota.com I would appreciate any info. Thanks
Brother gotta_trade I havent attended anything of Seykota's, but his message board replies are most insightful... Fraternal wishes, Candle
Dude, I mean Brother Candletrader, Yes, his message board is extremely insightful. I only wish that I lived in his area to attend one of his meetings. I am interested in attended one of the "branch" meetings. But, it would be great to attend an actual meeting that Ed leads. Wish you the best, Gotta_Trade
Wharf some kind of new age guru wanting to mix science with metaphysics. The cause and effect is in MACROSCOPIC scale and STABLE state of a system whereas EMERGENCE phenomenon concerns MICROSCOPIC scale and TRANSITIONAL state of a system. If you compare apple with banana sure you can say it is different thing haha ! And how it relates to market's model is really another stuff. People like analogy because it is shortcut thinking. Sure there is analogy of FORM between fluid flowing and stock market but the CAUSAL effect has nothing to do with flowing itself but with MICROECONOMIC INTEREST I can say it because I have worked on it. This fashion is like the IA fashion every 20 years it fades then it comes back like in stock market there's a need of a generation to forget. As long as they are discussing in fuzzy terms they can give the impression of being discussing something valuable but it's like discussing on ether at the beginning of the century : something that was an illusion at least until Einstein's theory blows off. This can always happen in science a theory is always partial for one cannot pretend to have discovered the ultimate since he would be God then. >Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2003 Consider the Particles see Mathematics and Causation I don't agree with the Newton formulation of cause and effect. Differential equations are pretty descriptive, and the mindset difference you attribute to Newton versus Euler seems forced. But here is my take on the problem. The traditional mathematical approach to physical systems to to take an outsider's view and describe the system, then to solve the general equations. The problem with this approach is that it doesn't mesh with our understanding of how the individual particles are reacting (where "particles" can be atoms, gas molecules, people, stock prices, or whatever the system is modeling). In most of the real world, particles are pretty dumb: they simply react to the forces impinging upon them. So a better modeling technique is to model what it looks like from the perspective of the individual particle: take an insider's point of view. This is what modern swarm theory, automata theory, chaos, complexity, and related approaches are all about. You model the individual, and the rest follows. Our mathematical tools are usually inadequate for this task, which is why most of the really interesting work is being done through simulations. See Wolfram's book. See Johnson's trade book for a popular account of some of this work: Johnson, S. (2001). Emergence: the connected lives of ants, brains, cities, and software. New York: Scribner.
Happily this page on Donchian is more valuable: http://www.seykota.com/tribe/Reference/Donchian/index.htm "During WW II he serves as an Air Force statistical control " Hé another Statistical Process Controller like me . Just point that Process is the important point whereas most people only focus on statistical (that's why perhaps pure statisticians are bad in modelling stock market hihi). In fact I have made a little reference to Donchian chanel in my model's guide: "The projection line is a kind of target line from the base line launchpad. A line is composed of points which are viewed in the traditional price,time coordinates system. Each point should correspond to the theorical high, low or break zone in real market with extremes at the lowest low or highest high being the super top or super low in real market (see point 4). Using a donchian chanel or a high-low price chanel can allow to visually track the forecasted points with real market's price."