Russia to hurt the US and Europe only need to spike oil and commodity prices. Why do you think even the US and Europe continue to buy Russian oil and natural gas? They know that if that 10-14% Russian share of the oil market were to totally vanish, oil will spike thru levels unheard of. Not sure which broker said oil will hit $185 a barrel. The other day it already hit $119 a barrel. Commodities? Most of it exported by Russia and Ukraine. Once supply is disrupted, how high do you think commodities prices will rise. Most of it used by US and European companies? Hyperinflation in the US and Europe will destroy their economies. Some analysts suggesting depression for the US and Europe. These sanctions can hurt the US and Europe in sky high inflation. It is coming and adding more sanctions only will pour gas into the fire. Are you ready for hyperinflation? This Ukraine war is in early stages, 9 days in? Wait till it reaches 3 months then, tell me these sanctions are a huge success. Oh, you are in for a rude awakening. NATO will have to deal with Putin, like it or not. That is the only way they will stop this war.
I don't think so. First of all, 10-15% Russian share of the oil market will not completely disappear, it will be redirected, though definitely reduced, which means other oil produced by others will be redirected as well. And commodity prices may rise, but again, the share is not that great. Basically, in spite of your constant pro-Putin propaganda, yes, the West will suffer a bit. Russia, on the other hand, will crater completely. Watch this happen. Already the ruble 120 from 70, and that's the "official" rate, I am hearing that in Russia there is no way to buy currency at that rate right now (actually, at any rate). In Czech Republic, from one of my nephews, I hear that 100K rubles gets you $300 today. Who knows what it will be tomorrow.
https://www.fontanka.ru/2022/03/05/70490492/ For those who cannot read Russian - the biggest paper manufacturer in Russia has to stop production for lack of needed chemicals. Since this is a Russian source, they carefully don't mention the sanctions but they do say the chemicals/raw materials that are needed come from Europe. This is just the beginning. Also - Bloomberg, so this is behind paywall: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...xt-big-test-trying-to-sell-83-million-barrels Rosneft is trying to sell 83M barrels of oil, at a discount of $22 and is not finding any buyers. It is estimated that about 70% of Russian oil right now cannot be sold because either of the uncertainty of sanctions or because of the image/"good will" hit the buyer would take.
I am only talking about the huge negative economic effects in the US and Europe of these sanctions. Do you live in the US or Europe? If you do, you will find out soon enough. I do not think it will take 3 months for hyperinflation and oil to skyrocket as well as commodity prices. You call it propaganda but, I am only stating the truth. Let us see in 3 months time. Tell me after 3 months how great the sanctions are. You will be in for the shock of you life and I will tell you, I told you so. Lastly, we would not be arguing over this stupid war if not for the US, France and UK all signatories to the Budapest Memorandum, forced Ukraine to hand over its nuclear missiles to Russia but, would not make Ukraine a NATO member then? They gave bogus security guarantees they had no intention of standing by. NATO hung Ukraine out to dry. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
In 3 months, gas in the US will be average $5, prices will be up 10%, inflation will be at 7-8%. That will be the peak, by the way. Meantime, in Russia, ruble will be at 500 or more and the economy will crater 30%-50%. And I will tell you I told you so.
Anatoly Nesmyan - a very good Russian analyst and military expert, recently (translation mine): We don't tell jokes, we live in them. "There are two questions on the agenda: 1. How to rule the world and 2. How to stretch the sack of potatoes until spring."
About Russian agriculture. From my Russian sources (I may screw up terminology, not an expert in translating the technical stuff): Grain seeds are 40-45% imported. The equipment used to work the fields - US, Germany, Holland. All the pigs are bred from imported materials, the feed comes from abroad, all the vitamin/mineral supplements come from abroad, and all the slaughter/processing/packing plants are 100% imported equipment. Same situation with chicken production. Milking equipment - all imported. So is the refrigerating and processing plant's equipment. Even the furnaces/thermo equipment on chicken farms is imported. Potatoes, corn, sunflowers, beats - all come from Western hybrid sources outside of Russia and need to be imported to be grown in Russia. Those cannot just be collected at harvest to be planted again, with any efficiency. Any disruption and Russia has no seeds to plant. And a lot of that is either already sanctioned or under threat of sanctions. Sounds like a bit of a problem for Russia don't you think, smallfil?
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-60631735 Workers are refusing to unload Russian oil from a German-flagged ship which is moored at a major British oil refinery. ... Earlier this week, dockers in Kent refused to unload two tankers of Russian gas, prompting the vessels to be diverted.
It is already over $5 a gallon in some states. My cousin paid close to $6 a gallon in California just yesterday. US still buying Russian oil as well as Europe. Keep dreaming. In 3 months time, maybe, sooner US and Europe will have hyperinflation then, all bets are off. One of us is going to be sure. Let us see.
The news of the refusal for ships in transport and unloading helps with verbal sanctions, but Russia doesn't sell much by ship. They pipe large majority of both Oil and Gas...both to Europe and China. Grains I suspect are shipping by semi trucks and rail. Metals also being shipped by semi truck and rail. The shipping news was for the the general show of support of sanctions.. The USA also produces large amounts of Oil, Gas and Grains and Metals. But these also do not ship by sea. We have Rail, Trucks and Pipelines. On a contiguous continent, ships are not a leverage. China is very far from USA, so shipping becomes center news often on this topic of logistics, supply bottlenecks and sanctions. The Suez canal has already been blocked which showed of how weak this issue is globally.