Economic numbers in order of importance

Discussion in 'Economics' started by hedgeme1, Feb 24, 2004.

  1. hedgeme1


    I am looking for peoples opinions on the order of importance of each of these economic numbers in terms of impact on the market when they are announced? I know sometimes it depends on the number, but a general opinion would be appreciated. Also, if I am missing any, please let me know! Thanks.

    Consumer Confidence
    Federal Reserve Day
    Greenspan Speaks
    Philadelphia Fed Survey
    Existing Home Sales
    ISM MFG Index
    ISM non-MFG Index
    Jobless Claims
    Construction Spending
    Challenger Job Cut Report
    Factory Orders
    Employment Situation
    Ignore Economic number:
    Help Wanted Index
    MBA Purchase Applications
    Farm Prices
    Money Supply
    ICSC-UBS Store Sales
    MBA Purchase Index
    Wholesale Trade
    BOE announcement
    Chain Store Sales
    Consumer Credit
    Motor Vehicle Sales
  2. very good beginner stuff.

    Also, you need several columns to assess several general aspects of each.
  3. For your list you have missed several items.

    Your idea of ranking is nice. For making money you need to have an "impact" or "relative strength" column.

    Since each of these A&R's follow a sequence (four parts) you need to address this as well. Columns work for this to get the facts noted.


    There is a companion list that is called "running the numbers". It is done to have a non lagging concensus for standard frequent presentations ("weeklies") at the EOP among other things. Most II's use it or similar convention to for standard frequency white papers they produce.

    There are no talking heads that do anything as deep as this stuff. They are "entertainers vis a vis the "now" news.
  4. hedgeme1


    Thanks for thr responses. These are good ideas. I am using this for position sizing through these numbers based on importance.

    Might be a good place to get started. Theres a little blurb on each report and its relative impact on the market, would caution that "impact" is always changing depending on what the markets are keying on.
  6. pspr


  7. A unique use to say the least. No matter, but I can't fathom any value in this a a possibility. Let us know how it goes, please.
  8. hedgeme1


    Where I use this is when I am in a futures position(ES, NQ). It's one of my money management techniques for lowering risk against an economic report that moves the markets. Even if I miss out on gains due to sidelineing a number, my risk is lowered. Whether I miss gains or deter losses, my thoughts are that it will all wash at the end of the year. The one thing that I will gain is lowering the risk of my trading system. Its pretty common for traders to sideline big economic numbers. My idea is definetly not unique. I just am putting together a list of numbers with almost "mechanical" procedures so no second-guessing is involved. Basically economic numbers that are in the "highest" risk category, I make sure I am completely on the sidelines with an exit exactly x minutes before the number comes out. Numbers in the "medium: risk category, I basically scale out of 1/2 of my positions. Low-risk numbers I just ignore. I know its not a perfect solution, but it adds a mechanical element where nothing is questioned. My style is intra-day trading, so getting out early is fine with me.
  9. Excellent... make sure to re-post any new versions you make, if you end up doing so. Some new columns would be nice. Dates of release, explanation of term, etc...
  10. I would consider it to be one of the most important numbers, and quite possibly,the key to the economic puzzle.DISPOSABLE INCOME,the Fed and the media stopped reporting these numbers not too long after 9/11 and all the interest rate cuts.Of coarse ,the market was already on a slippery slope prior to 9/11 and disposable income was near zero and in several months was even a negative number.The average household didnt have enough to pay all the bills.Hence,all the interest rate cuts to create disposable income.
    #10     Feb 25, 2004