Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2012 and Beyond

Discussion in 'Economics' started by SouthAmerica, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. .

    January 1, 2012

    SouthAmerica: My crystal ball continues to be very foggy these days, and I would be lying to you if I told you that I understand how the new economic system adopted by the United States in 2008 works.

    It is very hard to make any intelligent predictions when today we have a new economic system adopted here in the United States based on stock market manipulations, massive U.S. government intervention and nationalization of major sectors of the US economy. And we have a U.S. government acting as if it’s in complete PANIC because the entire US economic system is spinning completely out of control in a downward spiral and as a result the US government is resorting to printing money as fast as they can in a major last effort to avoid the First Great Depression of the 21st Century.

    We had QE1, QE2, QE3, “QE-Europe”, and “QE-anything” to keep the financial and economic system afloat a little longer, and keep the entire system from imploding into a black hole.

    I have been writing for many years that the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century” has been already underway for a few years. I mentioned on my articles, and on my postings on the Elite Trader forums. Here are a few links to the various threads:

    It’s 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depression


    Over 75 years ago Wall Street Crashed; but today the New Crash is already underway...

    The coming international trade war

    The final collapse of the US dollar it is just around the corner

    Here is a preview of the coming US dollar meltdown

    Economic Forecast for US Economy for 2011 and Beyond

    The US dollar and the biggest default in history

    The Crumbling of America

    Central Banks and the US Dollar

    The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012


    SouthAmerica: In a 1994 cover story by Carol J. Loomis on Fortune magazine, Fortune called derivatives, then relatively new on the scene, "The Risk That Won't Go Away."

    Years later derivatives grabbed everyone’s attention when Warren Buffett called it “financial weapons of mass destruction”

    The derivatives market was at the core of the events regarding the global financial meltdown of the September/October 2008.

    The derivatives threat is back in a big way, and that market is ripe to explode into a catastrophic chain reaction that can result in a massive meltdown of the entire global financial system.

    I have no idea who is in the other side of these derivatives with a notional amount outstanding of US$ 708 trillion US dollars as reported by the Bank for International Settlements.

    Maybe these figures also include business deals and derivative contracts with other planets such as Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune.

    BIS Quarterly Review – December 2011 – Page A 131
    Table 19: Amounts outstanding of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives
    Notional amounts outstanding as of June 2011 = US$ 708 trillion


    ...According to the Bank for International Settlements, the total outstanding notional amount is US$708 trillion (as of June 2011). Of this total notional amount, 67% are interest rate contracts, 8% are credit default swaps (CDS), 9% are foreign exchange contracts, 2% are commodity contracts, 1% are equity contracts, and 12% are other. Because OTC derivatives are not traded on an exchange, there is no central counter-party. Therefore, they are subject to counter-party risk, like an ordinary contract, since each counter-party relies on the other to perform.


    In a Nutshell: The global banking system is at the edge of the abyss, and we would have a massive global financial meltdown, if they were not trying to play games with the figures, and trying very hard to hide their massive losses the best way they can.

    What this US$ 708 trillion dollars figure is telling me is that most of the derivatives is nothing more than a humongous “Ponzi Scheme” that can blow up at any time and start a massive chain reaction that can destroy the entire global financial system – it will be remembered as: the mother of all financial meltdowns.

    During the great depression of the 1930's we had the stock market collapse of 1929, then in the following 3 years the stock market bounced back, then in 1932 started the real nasty decline that sunk the stock market and the US economy into the bottom of the abyss.

    Today, we have reached that special 1932 turning point: the point where the stock market and the US economy it will sink like the Titanic.

    What I am saying is: it does not matter who will be the next president of the United States, because we are entering the catastrophic phase of the new great depression similar to the period from 1932 to 1940.

    We are going to have real rough years ahead of us. It's not going to be a pretty sight.

    You can bet on that!!!!!!!

    By the way, this new great depression that is underway, it will be a lot worse than the great depression of the 1930's.

    You might be wondering why the US mainstream media has not been using the term “Great Depression” to described what has been going on in the economy of many countries all over Europe, and in the United States?

    Only few years in the future they will look back to this period that we are going through, and then they will start calling this period the “First Great Depression of the 21st Century.”

    My guess is that in 2012 we will have another massive global financial meltdown worse than the one we had in 2008.

    We never had before so much government interference and manipulation on the financial markets the way that we have today, and it is hard to predict what would create the spark that would blow up the entire global financial system – but that could happen at any time.

  2. Hey SA. What in particular are you doing to prepare for this potential crisis? Investment wise, work wise, family wise, real estate etc.
  3. January 2, 2011

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Optional

    1) I would suggest for you to watch the crash course that was prepared by Chris Martenson - February 23, 2011

    You can watch the videos here:

    2) I would pay attention to what Jim Rogers have to say regarding his investments and what he has been doing lately with his money.

    3) I would try to read newspapers and magazines from the 1930's to find out what the smart money was doing and how people were able to prosper during the great depression.

    Regarding your findings after you read this material, you would need to adjust it to take in consideration the world that we live in today.

    Remember the "First Great Depression of the 21st Century" it will be a lot worse for most of the population here in the United States than the Great Depression of the 1930's.

    In the 1930's most of the population still living and their jobs were connected with agriculture in some way, and a very small portion of the US population were living in big cities.

    Today just a small fraction of the US population their jobs are connected in some way to agriculture, and most of the population live in cities around the country.

    Don't be surprised if we see huge riots, and massive unrest around the country in the old USA in 2012 and beyond.

    The "Perfect Storm" is ahead of us, and the shit is going to hit the fan like never before!!!!!!!

  4. sheda


    Always take your posts as bullshit - you put a lot of effort in though:)
  5. January 2, 2011

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Sheda.

    It is because you are new to the Elite Trader forums.

    I had a bunch of people like you, here on ET and also on Brazzil magazine who also thought that my articles and postings were bullshit, and years later it became a lot of fun to read these fools silly comments.

    Eventually you will know what I mean, we will get there.

    In the future we will come back to your comment and see who is right.

    I hope you still be around ET at that time.

  6. sheda


    Will do 2nd of Jan 2013!
  7. hkrahra


    will it suffice if i only have 300 bucks?

  8. January 2, 2011

    SouthAmerica: Reply to Sheda

    I can see that you are a real guru regarding your knowledge about investments and trading.

    Hah, hah, hah.....



    Sheda: My advice:

    Risk little to start with.

    Lock your self in a room and read nothing but the required economic information.

    Let no one know the details of your trading activity.

    Let no one influence how you perceive your trading activity

    Completely Clear your mind of doubt.

    Take each trade as a small case study, noting the differences between live and demo.

    You can run them side by side on the same trades and as time goes on with the more information you get you adjust your method to deal with the live market environment but start small.

    If you make 20 demo trades per day make one live trade In Conjunction with a demo trade. Increase the number of live trades as you feel appropriate, when in a psychological sense you feel the same about both and your method works well live its time...Good luck.

  9. sheda


    Makes sense.

    Correct, it stops a newbies perspective being perverted and there attention being scattered left right and centre by self appointed "its end of the world" gurus like your self.

    Correct, dealing with failure is hard at any point, especially so at the beginning of your trading career, its a lot easier to get through this without your family and peers looking over your shoulder at every move.

    Correct, or perhaps the newbie should come on elite trader and read 70,000 " they just lose!!!" posts each morning before they start to trade for the day?

    No way....

    Have you ever made a trade? Demo and live being two completely different worlds, its important to note the exact changes you experience in psychology and market as you move forward and make your trades.

    This way you end up with a list noting your psychological tendencies and differences in trade execution, giving one a birds eye view of there behaviour, allowing them to work on each aspect instead of just finding them selves overwhelmed and so deep into the experience they don't even know what's wrong.

    Yes, the idea is to make a transition from demo to live, step by step adjusting your faults as you go, the goal being that by the time you are trading live 100% your psychology is tuned and you are functional.

    I have noted people do much better this way than to jump straight from demo to live, im no expert, im no guru, you fucks make me sick, im just a guy that gets by, I shall leave that world to you.
  10. #10     Jan 2, 2012