I think the initial analysis was very good in identifying the problems, risks and possible downturns. The only error was in how it was projected and applied. The problems is that when extending logics from one system into the future - i.e prediction and doing this with detailed levels, the accumulated error is greatly/explosively increased. The indicators were all correct, but the holistic systems view was not correct. Therefore the market increased further, and it took longer time before trust was eroded and perceptions dawned. This goes to show how predictions must not exclude information - but take into consideration much more and balanced factors of influence - to make better predictions with regards to timing and applicability.
. November 19, 2008 SouthAmerica: From all the predictions that I made four years ago in November 5, 2004 - Economic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyond â the Nasdaq and the S&P has just reached the range that I predicted. There is only one prediction left for all predictions to come to past. The Dow Jones has to reach 7,300 before the end of 2008. Market will trade in the following range in the next 4 years: Dow Jones from 7,300 Nasdaq from 1,400 S&P 500 from 800 ************ Closing for November 19, 2008 Dow Jones = 7,997 Nasdaq = 1,386 S&P 500 = 807 .
. December 7, 2008 SouthAmerica: This evening I Googled my name to find some information that I was looking for when I came across a posting that I had initiated on Elite Trader - âEconomic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyondâ â author Attila S. L. Andrade quoted on his book my postings on Elite Trader. Quoting from Dr. Attila S. L. Andrade Jrâs book âUSA 2030 Predictionsâ published in December 1, 2007. âPg 91 Moreover, another problem with predictions resides in the fact that many of them, especially the economic predictions, carry along a certain wishful thinking on the part of those who make them. Optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints of the future may, after all, represent what observers wish to happen in their predictions. For instance, we just read one prediction in which the author, without much research or evidence, forecasted dire events for the American economy in 2005. He was so certain of these predictions that he decided to announce on the Internet. Needless to say, none of these predictions ever happened.â ***** Then as a footnote # 32 on his book he quotes my thread on Elite Trade âEconomic Forecast For US Economy for 2005 and Beyondâ including the note that I included with my original posting on November 5, 2004 saying: NOTE: Above are the predictions that I made right after George W. Bush was re-elected. Most of you think that they are silly predictions, and full of gloom and doom. Do yourself a favor make a copy of these predictions and check them again by November 2008 (The new presidential election here in the US), and you will see that I was right in the nose. I am so confident about my predictions that I am putting them in writing for entire world to see it, as I did in the past. (And I did identify myself, and signed my real name) ***** I said on my note on November 5, 2004: âDo yourself a favor make a copy of these predictions and check them again by November 2008 (The new presidential election here in the US), and you will see that I was right in the nose. But for some reason Attila S. L. Andrade had decided sometime in 2007 before he published his book âUSA 2030 Predictionsâ in December 2007 that all my predictions were just a bunch of BS and he said the following about my predictions: âHe was so certain of these predictions that he decided to announce on the Internet. Needless to say, none of these predictions ever happened.â I think itâs too bad that Attila S. L. Andrade did not have the opportunity to read my article published on February 13, 2005 on Brazzil magazine â Itâs 2008. The U.S. Has Dragged the World into a Depressionâ By Ricardo C. Amaral http://www.brazzilmag.com/content/view/1424/49/ If he had read that article as well then he could have used also on his book that article to help him discredit my foresight and ability to connect the dots and being able to see events in the future. Attila S. L. Andrade used my original posting on this thread (the entire posting) as an example on his book about bad predictions that people make on the internet. He made one major mistake when he tried to discredit my predictions too early on his book published in December 2007, (for a book to be published on December 1, 2007 he probably had to submit his manuscript for publication by mid-summer 2007) and I am sure that he thought most of my predictions had no chance to materialize by November 2008 as I mentioned on my notes that he published on his book. I am sure that right now in early December 2008 Mr. Attila S. L. Andrade must be very surprised and wish that he had not written the following on his book: âHe was so certain of these predictions that he decided to announce on the Internet. Needless to say, none of these predictions ever happened.â If anything he is the one who looks very foolish right now. ************ USA 2030 - Prediction by Dr. Attila Andrade Dr. Attila S. L. Andrade Jr Astemari Publisher â Published on December 1, 2007, $20, paperback, 217 pages Reviewed by Louis V. Riggio, published in the march issue of American Foreign Service Journal Louis V. Riggio was a Foreign Service officer from 1963 to 64 and 1982 to 84. Currently a writer and professional linguist in Portuguese, he works from time to time on State Department contracts. USA 2030 â Predictions is a remarkable effort in futurology aimed at the United States. It follows the publication in Brazil last year of Andradeâs Brasil 2030 As Previses (Brazil 2030 -The Predictions) that had the same objective regarding his home country. But unlike that book, USA 2030 - Predictions is not a translation from the Portuguese; the author wrote it in English. After earning both a masterâs degree and a doctorate in international law at Yale University while on Fulbright programs in the 1970s, Dr. Attila de Souza Leo Andrade Jr. became one of Brazilâs leading international lawyers. A frequent visitor to the United States, currently he is a guest lecturer at The University of Miami. His basic methodology is influenced heavily by Dr. Charles Reichâs seminal work, The Greening of America. He also frequently cites such distinguished thinkers as Max Weber, Alvin Toffler and Samuel P. Huntington. Yet while Andrade is highly erudite and familiar with America, Americans and Europe, the bookâs analysis strongly reflects his Brazilian roots. For example, while acknowledging the Calvinist/Protestant work ethic, he maintains that the West and America have succeeded because of their disregard for religion and religious principles â progress through freedom from religion, as it were. Whether or not a society understands it must create wealth is an important consideration for Andrade. Overall, Andrade is very bullish about Americaâs future because of our competitive edge in knowledge and technology. Perhaps the best encapsulation of his genuine enthusiasm for America comes early in the book: âIn other words, America has become a living entity, a real God.â Yet as a proponent of world peace and playing by the rules set by the United Nations, he decries what he calls Washingtonâs âbombs and bullets approachâ to foreign policy. He is particularly critical of U.S. policy toward the Middle East, including a focus on Israel to the exclusion of other players and the Iraq intervention, which he denounces as âblood for oilâ. Very critical of the âmilitary-industrial complexâ, he believes we will wage war for commercial advantage and raise taxes to pay for international adventures. Expanding his focus, Andrade makes a case for growing synergy among the following geographic blocs: the United States, European Union and Brazil; Russia, India and what he calls the âOrthodox statesâ, that is, Eastern Europe where Orthodox Christianity dominated, and China and the Islamic world. On that last point, I highly recommend his perspective on dealing with Islam, which centers on the conviction that the West must resist the temptation to use the terrorism threat to launch a 21st century version of the Crusades. Generally upbeat about Chinaâs economic growth, Andrade speculates that it may stumble at some point, requiring Washington to step in with a massive Marshall Plan. Given the dollarâs current fall and how Americans feel about that country (and taxes), that prediction may be less persuasive than others the book makes. Andradeâs erudition requires readers have a good dictionary handy. Also, be prepared for a number of new references, ranging from âfractal historyâ to an unusual interpretation of FDRâs famous Dec. 8, 1941, address to Congress following Pearl Harbor. Near the end of the work, Andrade states, âIt makes all the sense in the world for the U.S. State Department to pay more attention⦠to bring Brazil along as its continuing ally and partner in the world arenaâ. Toward that end, and to give Brazilians and others a better appreciation of American society and its complexities, we need far more Foreign Service posts in thinly staffed countries like Brazil and considerably expanded (and funded) public diplomacy efforts. USA 2030 - Predictions argues admirably for this goal. Source: http://astemari.com/blog/2008/04/03/a-brazilian-perspective-usa-2030-predictions/ ************ Biography: Attila Andrade, Jr. University of Miami - Visiting Spring 2008 aandrade@law.miami.edu J.S.D. 1977, Yale Law School LL.M. 1972, Yale Law School LL.B., Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Source: http://www.law.miami.edu/facadmin/aandrade.php?op=3 Attila Andrade, Jr. is a well-known Brazilian jurist and founder of the Brazilian law firm Advocacia Attila De Souza Leao Andrade Jr. Professor Andrade received his law degree from the University of Rio de Janeiro. A Fulbright Scholar, he also received a Master of Laws (â72) and Doctor of Laws (â77) from Yale Law School. He has published 16 books in his native country and abroad, primarily in the areas of Brazilian and foreign international tax and business law. In addition to his expertise in international business and tax law, Professor Andrade is a well-respected practitioner of futurology, which involves detailed analysis and reflection on how current events and circumstances may become tomorrowâs reality. His newest book in this area, titled USA 2030 â Predictions, deals in part with U.S. actions in the Middle East. Dr. Andrade is teaching a course on Doing Business in Latin America and a related workshop on Transnational Transactions. .
I want to hear your prediction for the ET daily visit numbers, you have dragged U-S into a depression
. February 20, 2009 SouthAmerica: My final prediction came to past - I missed it by 2 months but the Dow Jones traded below the 7,300 level today. All my predictions finally came to past. .
That's great. You want a pat on the back? How much money did you lose waiting for it to happen? Since you just swallowed and regurgitated Peter Schiff's opinions, did you copy his loses too? And the phrase is "came to pass."
. February 20, 2009 SouthAmerica: Reply to 4444CJONES4444 Sorry but I donât know who Peter Schiff is, since I never heard of him before you posted his name. ***** Reply to Lightningdog You wrote: âThe USA will not financially bail out the Brazil again.â Today Brazil is in great shape and your posting shows that you donât have a clue about what is happening in the Brazil regarding its economy. .
Except brazil is already getting bailed out by the Federal Reserve currency swap facility to provide USD liquidity to the brazilian central bank
this bubble got my attention in summer 2006. I knew prices (at least in miami) were unsustainable and that a huge foreclores were going to hit anytime in the future. At the time I was an economics student, i did not get my prof attention (so much for PhD's). But this guy knew all along back from 2003: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=151439