Economic Data 4-24-03...

Discussion in 'Data Sets and Feeds' started by dgmodel, Apr 24, 2003.

  1. dgmodel

    dgmodel Guest

    expected was 425k, comes out with 455k, why are the newswires saying it was worse than expected??? and why did the futs drop a point b/c of it???

    08:35 ET Initial Claims worse than expected
    Initial Claims came rose 8K to 455K, while this is a volatile report it was significantly worse than expected.

    (Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (decreases) in claims potential signalling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile, and many analysts therefore track a four week moving average to get a better sense of the underlying trend. It typically takes a sustained move of at least 30K in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

    There are two other statistics in this report -- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month to month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a factor for the market.)

    08:31 ET Durable Orders for March at +2.0% vs consensus -0.6%

    more importantly durable goods is a somewhat mover of the market and it comes out 1.94 better than expected and does not effect the mkt in any way... can someone explain this pls... thanks in advance...

    (The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broadbased increases in orders)
  2. bozwood


    "expected was 425k, comes out with 455k, why are the newswires saying it was worse than expected???"

    ... 455k intitial claims is worse than 425k intitial claims

    ... And the economy is so tied to the consumer right now, that any sign of weakening there is trouble. That is why durable goods didn't move the market as much.
  3. dgmodel

    dgmodel Guest

    thank you...
  4. Mecro


    Today was profit taking from yersterday.