Massive amounts of fresh water flow into the Gulf of Mexico every day Time to build a pipeline from the Mississippi delta to Arizona
"The Earth has two lungs, one green and one blue." Destruction of world’s pristine rainforests soared in 2022 despite Cop26 pledge An area of primary rainforest the size of Switzerland was felled last year suggesting world leaders’ commitment to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030 is failing Tue 27 Jun 2023 07.01 BST An area the size of Switzerland was cleared from Earth’s most pristine rainforests in 2022, despite promises by world leaders to halt their destruction, new figures show. From the Bolivian Amazon to Ghana, the equivalent of 11 football pitches of primary rainforest were destroyed every minute last year as the planet’s most carbon-dense and biodiverse ecosystems were cleared for cattle ranching, agriculture and mining, with Indigenous forest communities forced from their land by extractive industries in some countries. The tropics lost 4.1m hectares of primary rainforest in 2022, an increase of around 10% from 2021, according to figures compiled by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the University of Maryland. The report’s authors warn that humans are destroying one of the most effective tools for mitigating global heating and halting biodiversity loss. Land use change is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions behind the burning of fossil fuels and is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Limiting global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels is unlikely without stopping the destruction of rainforests, according to scientists. At Cop26 in 2021, more than 100 world leaders, including Joe Biden, Xi Jinping and Jair Bolsonaro, signed up to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030 in a commitment that covered more than 90% of the world’s forests. The new data suggests that leaders are failing to deliver on their promise. Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Bolivia headed the table for tropical primary forest loss in 2022. Indonesia and Malaysia managed to keep rates of loss near record low levels after significant corporate and government action in recent years. Bolivia was one of the few big forested countries that did not sign the Cop26 commitment on stopping the loss. Ghana, a major producer of cacao for chocolate, has suffered the biggest relative increase in forest loss of any country in recent years, although the absolute figures are small. Away from the tropics, the loss of Russia’s boreal forests slowed after a record year for destruction in 2021, but researchers said this was not an indication of a positive trend. In response to the new figures, Inger Andersen, the UN’s environment chief, has called for a higher price for forest carbon to eliminate the short-term economic incentive to clear rainforests. Through carbon markets, countries with forests that are critical to the climate – such as Gabon, Brazil and Peru – could receive payments to keep them standing, although there are doubts about their conservation success and ability to scale to the required size. In April, a report calculated that at least $130bn (£100bn) a year was needed to protect the most at-risk areas. “Forests are critical for our wellbeing and the wellbeing of planet Earth. Ending deforestation and halting forest cover loss are essential ingredients to fast-tracking climate action, to building resilience and to reducing loss and damage. We need to put a higher price on forest carbon, one that reflects the true value of forests, that reflects the actual cost of emissions and that is sufficient to incentivise the sellers to protect standing forests,” Andersen said. Deforestation for agriculture, particularly cacao farming, near the Ghana-Togo border. Photograph: Muntaka Chasant/Shutterstock “Forest protection and forest restoration is about so much more than a carbon price. It is about protecting biodiversity; protecting the livelihoods of Indigenous people and local communities, and sustaining the hydrological cycle to stabilise weather patterns and protect ourselves against landslides, soil erosion and flooding. We simply cannot afford to lose more forest cover,” she added. What is deforestation – and is stopping it really possible? The 2022 figures cover the final year of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency in Brazil, during which huge areas of the Amazon were cleared. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his successor, has promised to end deforestation and is holding a pan-Amazon summit later this year where the issue will be discussed. Brazil, Indonesia and the DRC, which are home to around half of the world’s remaining rainforests, are increasingly working together at UN environmental talks to demand money for protecting forests in a coalition called the “Opec of rainforests”. The figures describe tree-cover loss, which is not necessarily deforestation. Deforestation is always done by humans while tree cover can be lost through wildfires and other events. The figures do not include regrowth or regeneration of a forest. https://www.theguardian.com/environ...inforests-soared-in-2022-despite-cop26-pledge
This is a good collection of data from the climate change side of the broader ecological overshoot problem. ‘Off the charts’: Earth’s vital signs are going haywire by: Jeff Berardelli Posted: Jun 29, 2023 / 02:11 PM EDT Updated: Jun 29, 2023 / 03:48 PM EDT TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — In my 3 decade-long career being a weather forecaster, and now Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist, I have never observed so many of Earth’s vital signs blinking red. Meteorologists and climate scientists all around the world are in awe by the simultaneous literal “off the charts” records being broken. Yes, it’s climate change. The steady trend of rising temperatures over the last few decades has placed Earth’s baseline climate so high that achieving these extremes – which used to be rare if not unheard of – is now expected when conditions are ripe. And right now they are, with El Niño’s added heat and several other concurrent, varying natural climate patterns. So, to be more specific, it’s climate change – with other natural patterns piled on top. With El Niño now in place, we are getting a glimpse of just how far we can force the climate system, with never before observed heights achieved. Many more are on the way for 2023-2024 as El Niño gets stronger and more heat is released from the oceans into the Atmosphere. From ocean temperatures, to sea ice, to land ice to emissions from wildfire smoke, the charts below speak for themselves. Let’s start with ocean temperatures. Due to a combination of factors, the North Atlantic Ocean is way beyond record hot right now. The kind of heat that would only be found once in 10s or 100s of thousands of years in a climate before human-caused warming took hold. Take a look at the North Atlantic sea surface temperature departure from normal in 2023 compared to previous years. (Image credit Professor Eliot Jacobson) The Atlantic has warmed ~2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1900, due to warming from emissions of greenhouse gases due to the burning of fossil fuels and also, more recently, the decrease in air pollution, allowing more sunlight through. In the shorter term, on top of that, we have a weaker Atlantic high meaning weaker tropical low-level winds (Trade winds), and thus, less dust stirred up off Africa. Less dust over the Tropical Atlantic skies means more sun gets through and it warms the surface. In the below comparison, from Dr. Michael Lowry, you can see the absence of dust compared to normal. Use the slider bar to view the eastern Tropical Atlantic. (Also notice the excess smoke in the North Atlantic from the Canadian fires. We will return to that). There is also an extreme heatwave off the coast of Europe contributing to the heat as well. And it is not confined to the Atlantic. In the Pacific, El Niño is warming the Tropical waters while heat lingers from a warm blob over the North Central Pacific ocean. When you add it all up, Global Ocean temperatures are way beyond record hot, making the heat basically statistically impossible before human-caused warming existed. Below you can see the black line indicating this year’s sea surface temperature departure from normal (about 4 standard deviations above normal) which is far above records. (Image credit Climate Reanalyzer) Another chart that has really stood out for it’s off the charts look is Antarctic sea ice. Right now sea ice should be growing fast near the South Pole. Instead growth is labored and departures from normal are the highest ever observed, at a very surprising time of year given that it’s winter there. (Image credit Zack Labe) To view this another way, take a look below at the map of Antarctica. The red shows areas that are behind on sea ice growth; nearly everywhere! While climate change is likely playing a role in the downward trend these last few years, it can likely not explain the rapid dip in sea ice growth in the past few months. The atmospheric and ocean currents are very variable near Antarctica, and it will likely take much research to quantify the reasons. Over the longer term, there are worrying signs at the bottom of the world, with a few new papers showing a large decline in the vital overturning circulation. That dip in southern ice has also caused Global sea ice to be at record departures from normal levels. (Image credit Zack Labe) Now let’s move on to the Canadian wildfires. It’s early in fire season, but already Canada has experienced its worst wildfire season on record in terms of burning area, fire size, and intensity. As the climate warms, areas dry, and fires spread more vigorously. This year, there has been a persistent heat dome for months across parts of Canada which has led to less rain and warmer weather. A measure of fire size and intensity from 2000 to 2023. Magenta is 2023. That has led to a record-setting amount of greenhouse emissions from Canadian wildfires. So many emissions it is almost equal to that of Canada’s normal greenhouse emissions in a whole year and it’s still early in the fire season. (Image credit Copernicus) We can see a worrying sign from the fire emissions data that as we warm the Earth, growing emissions from fires will counteract the deliberate emissions reductions from governments which are aimed at reducing climate change. It’s an irony. Lastly, let’s discuss Greenland. Recently the below image was posted by Dr. Jason Box, an expert on Greenland. It’s how surface snow/ice melt spiked off this chart over the past few days. Surface melt over Greenland Although this may appear to be a record spike, this graph shows values in the gray which are within the 10th and 90th percentile. Meaning it does not show values above 90%. This spike was caused by very warm temperatures, some of which can be attributed to downsloping winds. A further inspection reveals that we have seen much larger spikes in a few years prior, especially in 2021, the year of record for Greenland. This graphic below was made by Professor Eliot Jacobson. (Image credit Professor Eliot Jacobson) But for Greenland, it is still early in the season. Next week a massive heat dome will form over the Island and melt rates will be very high. With the added heat in the system from El Niño, it is worth watching to see if 2023 can overtake 2012 for the title. So far I’ve written all this without mentioning the ongoing heatwave in the US. While it was over Mexico and Texas it became one of the longest-lived early-season heatwaves on record, and by some measures, it is the worst heatwave on record especially in Mexico and southwest Texas. Numerous all-time records were broken, with stations in Texas recording over a week in a row of record-breaking heat. That heat has moved east into the US Deep South and Florida. The heat dome will finally fade over the next few days. The bottom line is, with Earth’s overheated climate and an intensifying El Niño, we can expect to see the Earth’s climate system astonish us over and over again into next year. https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/off-the-charts-earths-vital-signs-are-going-haywire/
Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries Lack of understanding of full economic damage caused by ‘hothouse’ conditions, report finds Financial institutions often did not understand the models they were using to predict the economic cost of climate change and were underestimating the risks of temperature rises, research led by a professional body of actuaries shows. Many of the results emerging from the models were “implausible,” with a serious “disconnect” between climate scientists, economists, the people building the models and the financial institutions using them, a report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries and the University of Exeter finds. Companies are increasingly required to report on the climate-related risks they face, using mathematical models to estimate how resilient their assets and businesses might be at different levels of warming. The International Sustainability Standards Board last week launched long-awaited guidance for companies to inform investors about sustainability-related risks, including the climate scenarios chosen in their calculations. Countries including the UK and Japan have said they plan to integrate these standards into their reporting rules. Companies will also have to report the full scope of their emissions, including those from their supply chains, from the second year they begin to report under the guidelines due to come into effect in 2024. That was a particular “challenge”, since companies would need to collect the data from all their suppliers, said George Richards, head of ESG reporting and assurance at KPMG. More...