Death by hockey sticks By Tom Murphy, originally published by Do the Math September 15, 2022 "You may be familiar with the term “hockey stick curve,” used describe a trend that has been flat/stable for a very long time, but shoots up at the end of the series in dramatic fashion, resembling the shape of a hockey stick. Hockey can be a violent sport, and it’s easy to get hurt by even one well-aimed swing. Today’s world is being battered from all sides by countless hockey sticks. Mostly, they seem to be targeting Earth’s critters, who are getting bludgeoned unsparingly. But in the end, we’re only harming ourselves. "This post is structured as a gauntlet of hockey stick curves that may leave the reader feeling a bit bruised. Depending on what’s being plotted, many of the graphs shoot up like an exponential, but a few are careening downwards. A theme emerges: the “bads” go up, and the “goods” go down—and not by coincidence. People and Money "We’ll start simply. Human population looks like a hockey stick curve. This is not a surprise to anyone. The fact is greeted with a range of reactions from joy to despair, but mostly simple acceptance. Whatever your disposition, here’s what it looks like. Human Population "All the plots in this post will share the same time axis, from the year 1000 to 2200—even for those lacking information across the whole span. The point will be to emphasize the anomalous nature of recent history: what I call the fireworks show. Maybe it would be more fair to use a 10,000 year span (civilization), or 200,000 for modern homo sapiens, or even 3 million years for the entire human saga. On such scales, the present era loses its graceful curve and looks rather more like a sudden brick wall. "Anyway, fine. Population has surged, but what of it? Am I attaching a moral judgment to this? In itself, no. But this is just the first stick—consider it a warm-up. "Next, we look at Gross World Product (GWP) in constant dollars." Article in full...
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022-09-18/europes-real-time-experiment-in-energy-contraction/ Europe’s real-time experiment in energy contraction By Kurt Cobb, originally published by Resource Insights September 18, 2022 Poster from Great Britain circa 1939-46. Full text is “Keep on saving coal, gas, electricity, paraffin [kerosene]”. European society is currently undergoing a real-time experiment in energy contraction. Sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to a dramatic reduction in imports of Russian oil and natural gas. The Europeans are still receiving some Russian oil via pipeline though that flow was reduced last month. The reasons for the decline in natural gas deliveries from Russia—deliveries not prevented by Western sanctions—are disputed with each side accusing the other of being the cause. Those of us who have been warning about the coming energy stringency believed that it would result from the rising cost of extracting hydrocarbons—and the inability to bring new production online faster than production is declining from existing wells. In Europe, we are getting an early preview of what such a future looks like when a society is unprepared for a sudden decline in the availability of oil and natural gas. The loss of Russian natural gas imports is shaping up to be nothing less than catastrophic for Europe. Just two years ago the price of gas at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s most liquid natural gas market, was hovering around €11 per megawatt hour. At the close last Friday the price was almost 17 times higher at just under €188. At one point in late August the price spiked to €349. In the decade prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, the highest price ever seen for the TTF was a little over €29. These high prices reflect, of course, extreme tightness in the European natural gas market. That tightness is admittedly human-caused. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian natural gas constituted 45 percent of all natural gas imports to Europe according to the International Energy Agency. So dependent is Europe on imports of natural gas that Russian imports accounted for 40 percent of TOTAL European consumption. The Russian government has indicated that it is willing to provide gas to Europe once again. All Europe need do is ask and promise to pay its bills (in rubles). The Europeans, of course, are wary of such an offer since it will inevitability undermine their efforts to assist Ukraine in chasing Russian forces out of Ukraine. For obvious reasons, European governments don’t want to strengthen Russia’s finances. Beyond this, any renewed flows of gas could be terminated or curtailed as a way to punish Europe if it does not become more flexible on a settlement in Ukraine. This is the backdrop in Europe going into the fall and winter seasons when heating demand for natural gas will rise. That means prices will likely rise and many businesses will likely fail as energy costs overwhelm them. Already smelters and ammonia producers have closed or significantly reduced operations as high energy prices have made those operations unprofitable. Electricity supply—much of which in Europe is generated by gas-fired power plants—is likely to be inadequate leading to blackouts and brownouts. It’s worth saying that the aforementioned ammonia is a key component of nitrogen fertilizer which is in shortage across the world. Nitrogen and other fertilizers have skyrocketed in price this year in part as result of sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Russia and its ally Belarus are major fertilizer suppliers, and both claim to have had their fertilizer shipments curtailed as a result of the chilling effect of sanctions.) But fertilizer prices were already rising before the war (as were energy prices). Nitrogen fertilizers are critical to the food supply, so critical that it is believed that half the people alive today would not be without them. Declining European production of nitrogen fertilizer has now become part of a broader worldwide food crisis. If European businesses are forced to close due to high energy prices during the coming winter, there will likely be widespread unemployment. An economic recession then seems possible. One writer believes the economic effects will be more like a depression. We, of course, cannot know the future. Perhaps Europe will have an exceptionally warm winter. That would certainly take the pressure off the European energy system and the European economy. The worst effects of energy contraction would be avoided. If the European winter turns cold, however, this contraction will almost certainly be disastrous—disastrous for the European economy and for more than a few individuals who are unable stay warm.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ls-found-umbilical-cord-blood-samples-studies ‘Forever chemicals’ detected in all umbilical cord blood in 40 studies Studies collectively examined nearly 30,000 samples over the past five years in ‘disturbing’ findings Biobank, tube containing umbilical cord stem cells. Photograph: Bsip Sa/Alamy Tom Perkins PFAS chemicals were detected in every umbilical cord blood sample across 40 studies conducted over the last five years, a new review of scientific literature from around the world has found. The studies collectively examined nearly 30,000 samples, and many linked fetal PFAS exposure to health complications in unborn babies, young children and later in life. The studies’ findings are “disturbing”, said Uloma Uche, an environmental health science fellow with the Environmental Working Group, which analyzed the peer-reviewed studies’ data. “Even before you’ve come into the world, you’re already exposed to PFAS,” she said. PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 12,000 chemicals commonly used to make products resist water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down, and accumulate in human bodies and the environment. The federal government estimates that they are found in 98% of Americans’ blood. The chemicals are linked to birth defects, cancer, kidney disease, liver problems and other health issues, and the EPA recently found effectively no level of exposure to some kinds of PFAS in water is safe. Humans are exposed to the ubiquitous chemicals via multiple routes. PFAS are estimated to be contaminating drinking water for over 200 million people in the US, and have been found at alarming levels in meat, fish, dairy, crops and processed foods. They are also in a range of everyday consumer products, like nonstick cookware, food packaging, waterproof clothing, stainguards like Scotchgard and some dental floss. PFAS in products can be absorbed through the skin, swallowed or breathed in as they break off from products and move through the air. “The presence of these chemicals is also a threat to pregnant people, serving as first contacts with PFAS before they can pass from the uterus to the developing fetus by way of the umbilical cord,” Uche said. Scientists focused on umbilical cord blood because the cord is the lifeline between mother and baby. The findings are especially troubling because fetuses are “more vulnerable to these exposures because their developing bodies don’t have the mechanisms to deal with the chemicals”, Uche added. The studies linked fetal exposure to higher total cholesterol and triglycerides in babies, and changes in their bodies’ bile acids, which can lead to a higher risk of cardiovascular problems later in life. Some studies also associated cord blood exposure with disruptions to thyroid glands and microbial cells in the colon. PFAS can remain in the body for years or even decades, and some studies link fetal exposure to effects throughout childhood and adulthood, including on cognitive function, reproductive function, changes in weight, eczema and altered glucose balance. The studies identified about 35 different kinds of PFAS compounds, including some newer chemicals that industry and some regulators claim do not accumulate in the body. However, science is limited in the number of PFAS compounds it can detect in blood, so it is highly likely that many more of the chemicals passed on to fetuses. EWG said the best protection is for women to avoid using products that contain PFAS and use reverse osmosis of granulated activated carbon filters that can filter the chemicals, if they are in a mother’s drinking water. However, Uche said the findings underscore the need for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to ban all non-essential uses of PFAS, establish limits for all PFAS compounds in drinking water, stop industrial discharges, and establish limits for PFAS in food. Despite overwhelming evidence that all PFAS that have been studied are persistent in the environment and toxic, the FDA and EPA have so far resisted banning non-essential uses of the chemicals. The EPA last year rolled out a broad plan designed to rein in the chemicals use and limit exposures, but public health advocates say it falls far short of what the situation demands. It also largely focuses on four out of 12,000 PFAS compounds. “I’m a mother of two – I have a seven- and three-year-old, and knowing that I could have exposed my children to PFAS is disturbing,” Uche said. “With this review we are telling the EPA and FDA to please take simple steps to reduce PFAS exposures, and to protect our children.” -
This does not show the Nordstream release, yet. As sources are largely identified and quantified, this rapid growth suggests that carbon sinks are deteriorating. Not just forests, etc., but in methane's case the presence of hydroxl in the atmosphere, which "scrubs" methane. Forest fire smoke and other aerosols degrade hydroxl before it can neutralize methane. The result is that methane's effective half life is increasing. I think we're looking at a feedback loop in full operation.