Especially when investing, because there is actual data to interpret. But not in this board, dems v. reps is tribal and opinion.
This should be exceptionally interesting to follow. California will ban the sale of all new ICE cars. Really, now. Ooook. Let's see how that works out, when the majority of the population won't be able to afford an electric vehicle.
You nailed it. EVs will be the future, for the well off. Ramp up production all you like, they require different minerals and those are in short supply because everything from our phones on up needs them.
Is There Enough Metal to Replace Oil? by Robert Hunziker — 24/08/2022 The short answer: No, not even close! Nations of the world are only too aware that fossil fuels need to be phased out for two reasons. First, oil is a finite commodity. It’ll run out in time. Secondly, fossil fuel emissions such as CO2 are destroying the planet’s climate system. However, a recent study puts a damper on the prospects of phasing out fossil fuels in favor of renewables. More to the point, a phase out of fossil fuels by mid century looks to be a nearly impossible Sisyphean task. It’s all about quantities of minerals/metals contained in Mother Earth. There aren’t enough. Simon Michaux, PhD, Geological Survey Finland has done a detailed study of what’s required to phase out fossil fuels in favor of renewables, to wit: “The quantity of metal required to make just one generation of renewable tech units to replace fossil fuels is much larger than first thought. Current mining production of these metals is not even close to meeting demand. Current reported mineral reserves are also not enough in size. Most concerning is copper as one of the flagged shortfalls. Exploration for more at required volumes will be difficult, with this seminar addressing these issues.” (Source: Simon P. Michaux, Associate Research Professor of Geometallurgy Unit Minerals Processing and Materials Research, Geological Survey of Finland, August 18, 2022 – Seminar: What Would It Take To Replace The Existing Fossil Fuel System?) Metals/minerals required to source gigafactories producing renewables to power the world’s economies when fossil fuels phase out looks to be one of the biggest quandaries of all time. There’s not enough metal. Michaux researched and analyzed the current status of the internal combustion engine fleet of cars, trucks, rail, maritime shipping, and aviation for the US, Europe, and China, accessing data bases to gather information as a starting point for the study. Michaux’s calculations for what’s required to phase out fossil fuels uses a starting point of 2018 with 84.5% of primary energy still fossil fuel based and less than 1% of the world’s vehicle fleet electric. Therefore, the first generation of renewable energy is only now coming on stream, meaning there will be no recycling availability of production materials for some time. Production will have to be sourced from mining. When Michaux presented basic information to EU analysts, it was a shock to them. To his dismay, they had not put together the various mineral/metal data requirements to phase out fossil fuels replaced by renewables. They assumed, using guesstimates, the metals would be available. A key issue for accomplishment of renewables is power storage because of the impact of wind and solar intermittency, both of which are highly intermittent. Most studies assume gas will be the buffer for intermittency. Other than using a fossil fuel such as gas as a buffer, an adequate power storage system to handle intermittency will require 30 times more material than what electric vehicles require with current plans, meaning the scope is much larger than the current paradigm allows. One factor that will influence what materials and systems are used to build out renewables is the fact that EVs require a battery that is 3.2 times the mass of the equivalent of a hydrogen fuel tank. Therefore, an analysis of EVs versus hydrogen fuel cells indicates it’ll be necessary to the build out the global fleet with EVs for city traffic and hydrogen fuel cells for all long-range vehicles like semi-trailers, rails, and maritime shipping. The entire renewable build out requires 36,000 terawatt hours to operate, meaning 586,000 new non-fossil fuel power stations of average size. The current fleet of power stations is only 46,000, meaning it’ll take 10 times the current number of power stations, yet to be built. The new annual energy capacity of 36,007.9 terrawatt hours will supply (1) 29 million EV Buses (2) 601.3 million Commercial EV Vans (3) 695.2 million EV Passenger Cars (4) 28.9 million H2-Cell Trucks (5) 62 million EV Motorcycles (6). Hydro will also need to be expanded by 115% by 2050 and nuclear will need to double. Biomass will stay the same. It’s already at limitations. Geothermal triples. Additionally, buffer systems are crucial to handle intermittency. For example, Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia, which is an Elon Musk project with a 100-megawatt capacity. The EU is using Hornsdale as the standard buffer system. Globally, 15,635,478 Hornsdale-type stations will need to be built across the planet and connected to the power grid system just to meet a 4-week buffer system. This is 30 times the capacity compared to the entire global vehicle fleet. Therefore the market for batteries is substantially larger than currently understood and accounted for in planning for a renewable economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on how much metal is required per unit to build out a renewable economy. As well as a study of what 2040 market share would look like for batteries for light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles and power storage at the level of the global fleet for solar panels in 2040 and hydrogen fuel cells, trucks, freight locomotives, maritime shipping, wind turbines and power storage buffer. The total metals required for one generation of technology to phase out fossil fuels is listed by Required Production followed by Known Reserves for all metals based upon tonnes, as follows: Copper 4,575,523,674 vs. 880,000,000 – a serious shortfall -reserves only cover 20% of requirements. Zinc 35,704,918 vs. 250,000,000 – adequate reserves. Manganese 227,889,504 vs 1,500,000,000 – adequate reserves Nickel 940,578,114 vs. 95,000,000 – huge shortfall – reserves 10% of requirements. Lithium 944,150,293 vs. 95,000,000 = huge shortfall – reserves 10% of requirements. Cobalt 218,396,990 vs. 7,600,000 – huge shortfall – reserves 3.48% of requirements. Graphite 8,973,640,257 vs. 320,000,000 = huge shortfall – 3.57% reserves of requirements. Silicon (metallurgical) 49,571,460 – adequate reserves Silver 145,579 vs. 530,000 – adequate reserves Vanadium 681,865,986 vs. 24,000,000= huge shortfall -3.52% reserves of requirement Zirconium 2,614,126 vs.70, 000,000 – adequate reserves. Prior to 2020- the global system mined 700 million tons of copper throughout all history. Looking forward, the same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years, which is based upon current economic growth rates without giving consideration to what’s needed for one generation of renewables. Current reserves of copper are 880 million tons. But 4.5 billion tons of copper is required just to manufacture one generation of renewable technology. Hmm. Moreover, each renewable technology has a life cycle of 8 to 25 years. Thereafter, they need to be decommissioned and replaced. Also, whether renewables are strong enough, sustainably enough to power the next industrial era is a question that hangs in the air. THE PAST – “An industrial ecosystem of unprecedented size and complexity, that took more than a century to build with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of cheap energy the world has ever known (oil) in abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and unlimited mineral resources.” (Michaux) THE PRESENT – “We now seek to build an even more complex system with very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, with an unprecedented number of human population, embedded in a deteriorating environment.” (Michaux) Current mineral reserves are not adequate to resource metal production to manufacture the generation of renewable energy technology, as current mining is not even close to meeting the expected demand for one generation of renewable technology. https://countercurrents.org/2022/08/is-there-enough-metal-to-replace-oil/
News Analysis Environment & Health US Has Cut Water Supplies for 7 States During Climate-Induced Drought By Sasha Abramsky, Truthout Published August 31, 2022 The federal government’s recent announcement that it would impose significant cutbacks in water allocations to the seven states reliant on water from the drought-stricken Colorado River is the latest sign that climate change is ravaging global water systems. Arizona will lose more than 20 percent of its water allocation, and Nevada 8 percent. Northern Mexico, which is also reliant on the Colorado River and has been provided 1.5 million acre feet of water per year from the river since a water-sharing treaty between the two countries was signed in 1944, is being hit hard as well, with a 7 percent reduction in its water allocation from the river. Thirty Indigenous tribes, which have land in the Colorado Basin — and which, as a result of a 1908 Supreme Court decision, have water rights from rivers running through their territories — are also preparing for a more arid future. Some are cutting back their water contributions to state reservoirs; others, in a letter to the Department of the Interior, have noted that they aren’t being adequately consulted on fundamental decisions regarding water usage and distribution in the region. In Europe, much of the continent is facing its worst drought in half a millennium, with water levels on rivers like the Danube so low that sunken World War II ships are being exposed above the water line. Major hydroelectric generators in France, Italy and Spain are seeing drops in electricity production of 30 percent this summer. Crop yields across the continent are dwindling as the weather heats up and the rains fail to materialize, with the production of many staples forecast to decline by up to 9 percent over the next year. In China, crops yields are also being hammered by the hottest (and longest) heat wave on record, and so worried is the government that it is launching a series of “Hail Mary” attempts to seed the clouds in the skies above the dwindling Yangtze River with rain producing molecules. India’s crop yields are down so much this year, due to climate-related changes, that it has imposed strict limits on food exports. Each of these crises in and of themselves has the potential to destabilize global food markets. Taken as a whole, they represent a growing climate change-induced catastrophe. In the American West, which scientists now believe is experiencing its worst drought in 1,200 years — tens of millions of people have migrated into the region since the federal water compacts around Colorado River water usage were signed a century ago. Even in non-drought years, the growing population routinely overdraws groundwater supplies, reducing stores of water that accumulated over vast geological timespans. In the course of just four human generations, areas that once were simply desert have been converted into water-intensive global agribusiness hubs, and into mega-cities such as Los Angeles, Phoenix and Las Vegas, evermore reliant on the waters from the Colorado River that are carefully stored in, and distributed from, Lake Mead and Lake Powell. Now, with these two vast reservoirs at only 28 percent of their capacity, many of those areas have to find ways to collectively reduce their water usage next year by between 2 and 4 million acre-feet, or a third of the annual flow of the river in an average year, which is what federal authorities believe is necessary to bring the river back to health. It’s a staggering task. Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah, located in the upper basin of the river, are also facing large water supply deficits, though not nearly on the scale faced by their southern neighbors. So far, unlike Arizona and Nevada, they haven’t faced mandatory cuts imposed by the federal government. California, being an older state, has more senior water rights than its neighbors to the east, and thus it is, for now, spared from cuts in its Colorado River allocations. That’s a saving grace for southern California, the sprawling cities of which receive roughly one-third of their water from the river. But the relief is tempered by the fact that the state is facing its own devastating water shortages as a result of years of drought and a declining snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains. Reservoirs such as Shasta Lake and Lake Oroville are at or under 50 percent capacity. More than half a million acres of California farmland have been left fallow this year as farmers try to navigate shrinking water allotments from California’s water supplies. The crisis of land use will only worsen next year, according to analysts. Drought conditions now affect roughly half of the landmass of the 48 contiguous U.S. states. As a result, crops across the country are under stress: The U.S.’s cotton crop this year could fall by 40 percent. But from Texas westward, the crisis is omnipresent. Farmers in the western states are reporting crop declines in fruits and tree nuts of up to 50 percent. Almond crops, which are extremely water-intensive, as well as rice and wine grapes, are at risk in California, where up to 800,000 acres of land could lie unused next year. Tomatoes, garlic, and other staples also aren’t being planted in many California farms. And, as with earlier droughts, livestock are being slaughtered in Texas, Oklahoma, and other drought-stricken states, as owners struggle to pay for increasingly scarce feed and find enough water to keep the animals alive and healthy. All of this is pushing the world’s food supply chains into crisis mode. We have gotten used to an abundance of industrially produced, cheap food over the last hundred years. Especially from the post-WWII period on, we have become wedded to the notion that, at least in wealthy countries, food scarcity is a thing of the past. We have come to assume that if natural disasters impact food production in one locale, our sophisticated globalized supply chains will always have enough slack to make up for the local shortfalls. In other words, we complacently take it for granted that our crises will be staggered rather than occurring simultaneously, that the fates will somehow be considerate to us in metering the food production challenges they send our way. But what if that assumption turns out to be wrong? What if a series of interconnected, and accelerating, climate crises around the world erupt simultaneously and rapidly take away the slack from the system? What if the fertilizer shortages caused by the war on Ukraine, and other geo-political crises, further reduce food supplies? What if the energy crisis exacerbated both by the Ukraine war and also by the reduced availability of hydroelectric power as river levels fall makes it even harder to produce affordable food at industrial-scale quantities? What if large areas of the American West not only cease to be agriculturally productive, but also no longer have access to enough drinking water to sustain the tens of millions of people who now call the region home? The cuts to the Colorado River water allocations are unlikely to be simply a one-year blip. While this year’s heavy monsoon in the Southwest has somewhat alleviated the drought, it will take years of abundant rainy seasons to make up for the deficits in water supply created by 22 years of drought and decades of cavalier over-drawing of scarce reservoir water and groundwater supplies. In the meantime, the American West’s population continues to grow at unsustainable rates, the demands on its agricultural infrastructure keep expanding, and its insatiable thirst for water shows no sign of easing. If there’s an exit ramp to this particular highway, a method to avoid the pile-up just ahead, it’s unclear where it is, or how it can be accessed. Water rights activists have long called for more equitable distribution of water, for more infrastructure to secure drinking water in poor rural communities in particular, and for a move away from the most water-intensive crops, and most water-wasteful practices, in areas with dwindling groundwater supplies. Now, as the global water and food crises intensifies, these issues are acquiring critical importance in social justice campaigns not just in the U.S. but around the world. https://truthout.org/articles/us-has-cut-water-supplies-for-7-states-during-climate-induced-drought/