Your style is 'the' style... I have taken positions across the board expecting a reversal in all key markets... One characteristic I don't like about major futures contracts, except softs, is that they all seem to trade too close against the US dollar. Obviously they are traded in US dollars, is just that I feel like if having a position is the same as having five, even when these positions are in different markets... (One of the reasons I have now included forex pairs that don't trade against the USD in my repertoire.) Following your trades, specially your reasoning behind them, is really a beautiful gift to all of us who can appreciate. After two years of following your trades, I would say that learning how to trade strength, even though a very simple act, is extremely difficult to learn. I believe we are naturally hard wired to trade weakness not strength. Wonder if you had the same problem when you started. Cheers & Thanks. p.s. You mention you see a possible early reversal pattern forming, could you tell us in which time frame?
Yes, I had that problem. I fixed it by trading weakness in markets showing long term strength (and vice versa). Markets go up for a reason and it typically takes a strong reason for them to reverse. They seldom reverse on a dime. As far as the reversal pattern on the daily chart, I don't see one, I just know that as we poke past the high the second time, it's always important to take note of the action as there will be folks trying to sell it and create the double top.
Great discussion. I got out of all my currency positions albeit too early. No positions now. Stalking to go long beans and maybe wheat today. I am happy like a little pig in my short hogs though
Expecting some sideways/down action in the Swiss Franc Futures today with the nearish divergence on the 60 minute chart. I will ignore this signal in favor of what I view as the bigger picture. Staying long here. Cotton was nice yesterday eh?
Closed out ES longs from the ES journal. Loss of 18.5 pts(rounded up) per contract. Closed Long Dec NQ at 2171.50 for a total gain of 144.75 points. Update on Banked Journal Trades: ES +41.5 points ---4 trades 3 winners NQ +144.75 points---1 trade 1 winner Sugar +37 ticks---1 trade 1 winner Aussie Dollar Futures +184 pips 2 trades/ 2 winners British Pound Futures +236 pips 1 trade 1 winner Euro FX Futures +231 pips 3 trades 2 winners Heating Oil + 460 ticks 2 trades/1 winner Swiss Franc +58 pips 2 trades/1 winner Canadian Dollar Futures +68 pips 2 trades/1 winner Japanese Yen Futures +96 pips 1 trade/1 winner Current winning percentage 14/19 73.68% With 20 round turn commissions.
Uodate on currently held open positions: Long Dec Cotton from .6005 Long Dec Swiss Franc Futures from .8531 Long Dec Euro FX from from 1.4035 Long Dec Canadian Futures from .9810 Long March Sugar from .0998
Out of Euro FX at 1.41910 Out of Swiss Franc at .85170 Out of Canadian at 1.0225 No currency positions on right now.
Buy1Sell2, Decided to read your Eclectic Journal after following the ES Journal for quite some time - great journals both! Seeing as how you are very active across all commodities, I was surprised that you have stayed on the sidelines for Crude Oil since the $60ish area - especially when there was a strong pullback to $69 before the next big run up. Just looking for some insight on your thought process......
I missed this leg of the Crude trade. Happens sometimes--Looks to me like we have a long term uptrend with pullback occurring. I will try to monitor this pullback a little better and perhaps get in if it looks right. Otherwise, I will just stand aside. Long Dec Yen here at .88050. Full position--no adding. March Sugar looks cheap to me here. There is a bit of a doubletop on the daily, so I need to watch it fairly closely. I already have full position on.
Update on Banked Journal Trades: ES +41.5 points ---4 trades 3 winners NQ +144.75 points---1 trade 1 winner Sugar +37 ticks---1 trade 1 winner Aussie Dollar Futures +184 pips 2 trades/ 2 winners British Pound Futures +236 pips 1 trade 1 winner Euro FX Futures +387 pips 3 trades 2 winners Heating Oil + 460 ticks 2 trades/1 winner Swiss Franc +44 pips 2 trades/1 winner Canadian Dollar Futures +483 pips 2 trades/1 winner Japanese Yen Futures +96 pips 1 trade/1 winner Current winning percentage 14/19 73.68% With 23 round turn commissions.