ECB: Now a period of stabilization

ECB: Period of contraction has come to an end

ECB Trichet: Price developments seen 'subdued'

ECB staff ups 2009, 2010 GDP view

ECB staff sees 2010 GDP from -0.5% to +0.9%

 

In a few years this will read like

ECB Trichet: 雨が降りそう（あめがふりそう）
ECB Trichet: 音楽（おんがく）!

 

i am still concerned how they will hold the demand after the fiscal stimulus.

 

I just got back from 2 months in europe. I went to Germany, France, and Holland. The economy in europe is doing just fine. There is no crisis there. It's busier than last summer when I went. I think europe comes out of this much faster than the US. They didn't have the same over leveraged consumer.

 

what about eastern europe and the new eu memeber states. they are not in a good position. they also have a big impact on the more stable countries.

 

Remember kids, socialism doesn't work











in textbooks.

 

I think EU is leveraged pretty well, no doubt. But loans with very long term to maturity and extremly low rate keep asset prices up.

This is EU version of printing money. Meaning EUR will lose value in medium term.

EU respect much more risk of revolution than any other place because of historical reasons. So i think this will keep taxes high, rates low, and support USD as revolution in US remote possibility.

This is my longterm currency trade.