This is just my thinking. I won't spread rumours. But as I'm short I have to think of all the possiblities that can hurt me. So I must even consider a split. If so, I know what to do. I have a plan. Try to think what your counterpart might do: What can the ebay guys do to push it a little further in order to unload their stock inventory?
It wouldn't surprise me to see a stock split announcement, seeing how EBAY has only split twice before and it's up there price wise. Just another reason I got that collar on to help me sleep at night.
Your all very right...i`ll be 100% honest, when I put the pos. on a split was not even a consideration...I need to take a step back and re-evaluate the trade. You all have been helpfull! Good luck, no matter what your pos. Chris.
Have you ever used Ebay?? Ok I sell now on Ebay on the side, not much but it's a small business and it's a great learning experience. Plus, I ALWAYS sell personal stuff that actually has some value and I can sell. I buy quite some items on Ebay as well like PS2 games and small electronics. Bottom line, a large majority of the sellers are VERY HAPPY with Ebay and owe their financial independence to it. Fees are going up and certain Ebay security practices are just BS but Ebay is one of the best business models ever. Oh and in case you did not realize, Ebay acquisitions are to kill off whatever competition they may have had. They definitely overpaid for Paypal which was starting to abuse its customers, but it was a very strategic acquisition. Plus Paypal makes a lot of money. Is it really worth $90? The way things are going with this economy and the value of the dollar, no. Mainly because tough financial times and financial strain will shake out A LOT of the small sellers, as well as buyers. That is fact. The big corporate retailer that Ebay has been approaching may make up a little but that is questionable. Would I short it? No freaking way. It's one of the very few succesful, growing and profitable companies out there. Ebay carries a well deserved premium because Ebay has not matured yet. The international exchange of Ebay is barely starting up but is excellent (thats where I make my biggest margins). Plus, do you know how many people in USA still have no clue how great Ebay is for buying? Of course this is all assuming that we can trust Ebay's #s. I do know that they make a killing on the seller fees. But whether that money does not lose its way through the upper management, well who knows. As stated before, there are much much better stocks to short.
There's no doubt about it--Ebay is a terrific company with a bright guaranteed future. I use them all the time as a buyer and a seller of goods. Stock wise, its "premium" reminds me of JNPR back when it was one of the last remaining overpriced cult stocks that was the last to come back down to reality. With EBAY, either earnings need to increase tremendously or its price needs to come down a bit to be more reasonably valued, even at a premium. I suspect a little bit of both will occur over time. In the meantime, its chart says to me that a retracement is in order. However, I agree that this is a cult stock that can defy gravity and reality, hence I recommend anyone looking to go short hedge with options or wait for weakness first.
mecro - yes, i've used ebay. i knew about ebay before meg took over at ebay, and know many dealers who are both on and NOT on ebay. the % of people who were full time people on ebay and happy with it has been dropping considerably over the past 3 years. some of this is because of the increase in fees; some of it is from people who don't realize that as ebay gets larger, the prices realised (ie. market inefficiency) gets smaller...but most of it is because at every opportunity, ebay does something to screw things up. i'd suggest taking a look at theauctionguild.com to see some examples of it. for example, checkout; the number of lies stated by ebay reps *on a weekly basis* was amazing. >Oh and in case you did not realize, Ebay acquisitions >are to kill off whatever competition they may have had. yes, i know that. but overpaying every time, and threatening lawsuits without basis isn't the way to a successful operation... paypal's problems existed well before ebay, unfortunately; they have about 2 customer service reps who are out of this world outstanding, and a bunch of others who aren't qualified to flip burgers. >Of course this is all assuming that we can trust Ebay's #s. based on numbers i do know...nearly every 'metric' they provide is substantially inflated. the only number i'd trust is the profit for the quarter - and then adjust that for options, while insiders are frantically dumping.. they'll definitely be a survivor. but only a few analysts know the rest of the story, and they're not going to tell about it...
Can someone tell me why would you want to short Ebay at this level? Are you triyng to pick a TOP? why would you wanna do that? You are shorting strongest stock, why not short it when it will show some weekness and not a day before. Well you will not get at the top but you will be on the right side with much less risk. What is your stop loss if you short here at 90.00 well my guess is you do not have any.
I do not disagree at all. As someone who knows Ebay quite well, I will comment with Ebay has been getting bigger, hence more problems. In their credit, their customer service has been excellent considering their growth and power (they aren't struggling for buyers or sellers). The fees are turning off the small sellers, but Ebay is aiming for larger retailers nowdays, hence, just like you said, naturally raising the Ebay market prices for most items. I personally do not like that move, but I see their perspective. However, I think that might bring them down in a few years as it would make little sense to use Ebay for personalized service, fast shipping and below retail prices for brand new items. Ebay acquisitions are questionable but they make a lot of sense. It's not like Ebay was the only one trying the internet auctions and in the early phases, it is not that hard to run a good auction website. The payment services acquisitions are key, even with overpaying. Paypal is booming. However, unless Ebay turns Paypal back around in regards to ridiculous fees, pathetic customer service and some of the most idiotic security measures, it might turn out bad. Paypal practically owned a year ago, but now as their quality just dropped, competition is coming back again (Im considering switching) Do I think Ebay is overvalued? Hell yes. I wish I could get some but I'm not paying that ridiculous price. But shorting it is another story. Not worth the risk at all. In this market, there are very few stocks like Ebay. If you want to keep your money in the market, Ebay is one of the best choices, even if it is overvalued. Speaking of cult stocks, short DELL. This piece of shit company is a freaking joke. Horrible marketing strategy nowdays, as well as a horrible product. They appeal to first time buyers (little or no profit) with hopes of making return buyers since they sell POS computers for dirt cheap that break down or if you're lucky become obsolete. Yet their tech support is now outsourced in India where they got some heavy Indian accents reading from scripts. Make a lot of sense, since first time PC buyers are so tech savy.
Yes damm right, not a classical one. But some questions: How long do you think stocks can hold up to their all-time high without bouncing back? Is it profitable to go with the trend if it is already established for some time? Do single stocks outperform the market over a long time? But of course we have cult stocks with lots of earnings, track records and unstopable growth, which will survive for the next decades. Examples: VISX, YHOO, CMGI, MLNM, SUNW, EXDS, EMC, WCOM, NT, JDSU, JNPR, CIEN, NVDA, KKD, EXPE and lots of more to come.