Just wondering if any brave traders out there are short or looking to put on a bearish position on EBAY yet?? Stock has been on an amazing tear reaching higher highs on a daily intraday basis. I also have been surprised to see not a heck of allot of put buying on this latest run breaking $90.00 today. Today both YHOO & EBAY were in the pivot zone. Unreal, the volume was ridiculous. .25 - .30 gap up moves in the blink of an eye in mid afternoon play. I think YHOO is also trading at 52 week high levels.
I am looking into selling some OTM Calls and possibly buying some ITM Puts. Earnings are due out on the 22nd, 3 days after April Expiration. I have on about as many positions as I think my capital base can safely handle right now. However, I also have some more financing coming in on the 1st, so an EBAY trade is definitely a possibility. I would feel more comfortable getting in a short position on some unhedged Gold stocks if we get a good upward move in the next few weeks.
I shorted it today as it made an intraday double top around 3 pm. I also put on a May options collar for protection. We'll see what happens.
Anyone ever see the phenomenom where a stock that hits one of the hundreds picks up a helluva amount of steam and keeps on shooting? Round numbers like that serve as support/resistance. I remember a few days ago that EXPE was approaching 50. Pre-split would have made it a 100. It was lagging in enthusiasm after its initial mad dash but once it hit that magic number, it was like a shot of adrenaline and tacked on a couple of extra points for good measure. Anyways, I'm not going to short it until bearish confirmation. Just because you think its overpriced doesn't mean that everyone else does. And if it hits 100, well, I'm going to ride it for a few points before bailing.
There's a very old saying on Wall Street that "once a stock hits $90. then it will go right to $100." We shall see.
This stock will bury you. I received flack several months ago when I praised it as the most loved stock going and predicted it would go much higher. It is expensive but one of the few stocks that has it all--a great business, making the numbers and sex appeal. Think CSCO, DELL, MSFT, they were all overpriced severely and they carried out the shorts feet first. There are many crappy stocks out there. They are the ones to short. Shorting on valuation is a tough way to make money anytime, and shorting a stock with this kind of following is asking to get squeezed.
I've been shorting some token call positions - wouldn't short it with any conviction however as I just don't yet understand what drives EBAY price to the levels it is at ...
You guys might get lucky, Cramer just posted that EBAY would go out at 91 today. If you follow his individual stock picks you know what that means.
Food for thought....first thanks to everyone for posting your insights..... Sometimes it pays to read the Journal....I found an issue from last week scattered on my floor under my "to do list pile" ....anyways, it seems EBAY has forged in the the CHINA connection and this could be the reason why the run up has not let down yet.....plus with earnings coming soon, it has the classic setting for buy b4 hand and sell on earnings news........
ebay's earnings are smoke and mirrors. they've got options that would reduce their money to negative, and their rate of growth has stopped. their acquisitions have been hideous - the only one that recently looks like it *might* work is paypal, which they turned down only a few months before at 50% of the price. in addition, they somehow manage to tick off tons of the people who sell on the site. HOWEVER...it's a cult stock, the shorts 'know' they're right (which fundamentally, they are), and it's an institutional fave. it will crash, eventually... but it will only be obvious in hindsight. and the people saying it was "obvious" because of all that stuff, and the insider selling, will ignore how much they lost on squeezes, etc. no position, as i don't short cult stocks..