What is the size of the sample on which you are drawing your conclusion? I am assuming that you are not stupid enough not to understand the meaning of the words "Size" and "Sample" -- but I am not sure if my assumption is correct though.
I would rather bet that he would insult you if your are right out of disgust of him being wrong, and of course he would insult you if your prediction does not turn out to be right. He might even start insulting you well before the elections.
Classical answer that people who lose arguments resort to.What does gambling have to do with scientific/rigorous analysis?
Votes for "Obama loses" are currently 46.67%. I wonder whether there are some who voted more than once.