Earnings Volatility Plays

Discussion in 'Options' started by maninjapan, Sep 1, 2009.

  1. bebpasco

    bebpasco

    lol! No, it certainly is not. Nirvana refers to the hapless search for a reasonably priced risk graph (P&L) software package which allows IV adjustments for individual legs and multiple risk graphics over time.

    Anyway if you know of a stock that is/was trading at $165+ on 9/1 with pre-event IV's in the 90/70 area for successive months, I'd sure like to know what it is. I want to verify that poster's numbers and try some trade modifications of my own to his idea.
     
    #51     Sep 3, 2009
  2. oooo really?with diagonal it may happen,but with calendar ....

    the other thing is,that its kind of stupid to bet on a difference on falling IV,with a bullish IV strategy........at least i find it absurd,you might not......
    how about playing for difference in falling IV with a bearish IV strategy?
    and in both months,if think that the IV will drop everywhere?
    to bet on a difference change in IV between two moths is a total nonsense for me.......just bet on the change,not on the change between months.....
    you will make money,NOT LOSE ,like in your case will happen:D
     
    #52     Sep 3, 2009
  3. forget the calendar.forget the back month.just the near:

    for up in IV-stradlle or ratio back spread,but you run against time.its better to bet on falling IV ,just before earnings:
    1.short straddle,if you dont expect a big move
    2.ratio spread if you thing there might be no move,or a move in one direction only.
    3.broken wing butterfly,if you dont wanna risk gamma exposure.
    4.build a christmas tree :D

    its gonna cost you a lot of money,till you realize,that the calendar is not your strategy.......and it really hurts when your bet was right,but you lost money from choosing the wrong spread:D
     
    #53     Sep 3, 2009
  4. spindr0

    spindr0

    Yes, I used Optionvue a long time ago.
     
    #54     Sep 3, 2009
  5. not sure how different the current version is to what you used. Have you found anything better than it?
     
    #55     Sep 3, 2009
  6. spindr0

    spindr0

    Thanks for performance possibilities of a calendar spread (horizontal). It might be helpful if you tuned into what the discussion has been about for the past 3 pages. Perhaps even look at the attachment provided by pengw on page 6 which is a calendar ratio backspread (which might be one of those perhaps diagonals).

    I'm sure that there are a lot of things done b/t two moths that you think are total nonsense.
     
    #56     Sep 3, 2009
  7. spindr0

    spindr0

    I'm sure that it is greatly improved since I looked at it more than a decade ago. However, one of my informants demo-ed it last year and told me that it's not what I want :)
     
    #57     Sep 3, 2009
  8. anything else out there you reccommend at the moment?
     
    #58     Sep 3, 2009
  9. spindr0

    spindr0

    I think that there are far more competent people than me here who might have software recommendations for you. However, I sincerely doubt that Optionvue will let you down if you get your timing and selection right.
     
    #59     Sep 3, 2009
  10. right, like I said, Im still getting through all the functions that it has. Always interested in what else is out there though.
     
    #60     Sep 3, 2009