Earnings Volatility Plays

Discussion in 'Options' started by maninjapan, Sep 1, 2009.

  1. pengw

    pengw

    Please see attached image, it is a long Vega and long Theta play.

    Even you set IV ratio to 3 ( which I think cover 50% of cases ), the combined IVs after ER is still increasing not decreasing.

    Also don't confuse Vega with IVs. Vega tells you how much you gain or loss from now on for each % IV change. I only care about if vega is positive or negative but I care more about if total IVs is increasing or losing after ER.

    CRB is a long Vega play ( see attached image ) and combined IV is gainging after ER, so what is the problem ? Positive Theta is a bonus with one day passed.

    Still confused ? I used to use pencil and paper to calculate, now I use Options Lab.
     
    #41     Sep 2, 2009
  2. Butterfly is a debit with SHORT IV.
     
    #42     Sep 2, 2009
  3. agreed.my bad:D .....and the condor
     
    #43     Sep 2, 2009
  4. spindr0

    spindr0

    Sorry but you are wrong. There are earnings set ups where the IV contraction in the front month results in a profit despite the loss of the back month. And even with more long legs than short.
     
    #44     Sep 3, 2009
  5. otm butterflies are +vega. inside the wings they're -vega.
     
    #45     Sep 3, 2009
  6. spindr0

    spindr0

    thanks, I get it. Does it draw multiple graphs on the same screen depicting the effect of passage of time (decay) ending with an expiration curve?
     
    #46     Sep 3, 2009
  7. bebpasco

    bebpasco

    Hmmmmmm. Still looking for nirvana? lol!

    What is the hell is CRB stock at $165+?
     
    #47     Sep 3, 2009
  8. spindr0

    spindr0

    Hey! I'm honored that your once a month post was a reply to me :D

    Looking for nirvana? Hardly. I need something for the newest cadre of software moochers :p
     
    #48     Sep 3, 2009
  9. I think CRB means Calendar Ratio Backspread, which is not nirvana and has drawback of its own like any other strategies.
     
    #49     Sep 3, 2009
  10. spindr0, have you ever used OptionVue? Thats what I use, still getting used to all the features though.
     
    #50     Sep 3, 2009