Earnings Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by TheBigShort, Nov 11, 2019.

  1. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    Looks like I totally misread COST.
     
    #121     Dec 12, 2019
    vanzandt likes this.
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    It happens. It'll probably pay off bigtime had you given it one more expiration.
    Oh well.
    Drink heavily.
     
    #122     Dec 12, 2019
  3. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    Vanzandt,
    Did you happen to see something on COST that I missed? I thought their expansion this quarter into China + their expectations for further expansion in China would have put them in a new category. I also had some other reasons like Analyst uncertainty and mixed sales report. Implied move was only 3.2%.
     
    #123     Dec 12, 2019
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Damn... I did not. I have not kept up on them the last two or three Q's. Followed their story that is.
    Its not over obviously, and I didn't read the transcript... you might be ok though, but... and I hate to say it, but maybe not this time. That is a pretty small move they had priced in. Almost too good to be true. You might take a hit on this one. But the good news is... if history is any guide, you might catch a spike in one direction or the other tomorrow and get out at the intrinsic value of one or the other at or near your total cost. Give it till 2PM. But if you can get out at a small loss take it.
     
    #124     Dec 12, 2019
    TheBigShort likes this.
  5. Adam777

    Adam777

    Hi @TheBigShort is GIS and PAYX on your radar? These are the only things I'm looking at over the next few days. They're both charting sideways, and fairly stable over the last 4 and 12 earnings.
     
    #125     Dec 12, 2019
    vanzandt likes this.
  6. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    I'll take a look at these and get back to you over the weekend.

    I was fortunate to get out at COST when it was trading at 290. Close position for .48. Loss of almost $3! Yikes
    Screen Shot 2019-12-13 at 11.39.32 AM.png
     
    #126     Dec 13, 2019
  7. Adam777

    Adam777

    ... are the usual resources wrong again ...?...
    2873CDB8-5AD2-4531-B969-8DD146EDD8A5.jpeg
     
    #127     Dec 13, 2019
  8. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    Blue is implied right? This is COST? Looks about right to me. I had an implied move of 3.2/3.3. That looks the same as the above chart
     
    #128     Dec 13, 2019
  9. Adam777

    Adam777

    Yes blue is implied
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
    #129     Dec 13, 2019
  10. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    I finally understand how partial pooling works and how it is related to earnings. In my excitement, I want to thank @Kevin Schmit for being the best teacher I have ever had and not asking for a dime in return.

    Unknowingly Kev has changed my life. What he has given me has changed what I value and will change who I grow into. I think this season, we should all give back to someone who understands less. Have a bit more patience this season.

    I know there are many "on lookers" on this thread. Take the time to help someone over the next week or so. What you do may change someone's course forever.
     
    #130     Dec 16, 2019