Earnings Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by TheBigShort, Nov 11, 2019.

  1. I am still trying to get in on the modified strangle 6DEC: 126/-2*129/110/-2*107 @ -1.05 giving me about 1.5 EM on either side, but with max gain at 129 or 107...we shall see..
     
    #101     Dec 4, 2019
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    I haven't been following the thread here real close, I wish I would have noticed you were playing HQY... I follow that stock off and on. I wrote it up in stocks when it dipped down to the low $50's. https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/healthequity-inc.335682/
    Had I noticed you were playing it I would have refreshed my research for ya. Looks like it went back up after that first dip today. Glad you got out. In all honesty, its pretty damn overpriced but it is well loved. I closed my (strictly today only) long position on FIVE I opened this AM. Just the stock. I knew it would climb a little. Got 118.50. Didn't feel like watching it all day.
    g/l 2nite with it if you play it. They need strong same store sales, if that comes in it'll go up a bit. Rev and earnings I suspect were sandbagged as I said before. We'll see.
     
    #102     Dec 4, 2019
    Jeff1228 likes this.
  3. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    hey stam, what stock is that for?


    FIVE was a sweet short vol. Unfortunately I could not do any earnings trades. Good call tho

    I won't be trading until -Tuesday. I am running my first marathon in Jamaica on the 8th.
     
    #103     Dec 4, 2019
  4. That was FIVE. I also added the 110/118/118/126 as an I-fly for 7.80. So far it hasn't moved much (we will see how it ends by the opening tomorrow...)
     
    #104     Dec 4, 2019
    .sigma and vanzandt like this.
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Where does it need to trade at for you to max that trade out?
     
    #105     Dec 4, 2019
  6. destriero

    destriero


    I am running in the Reggae!
     
    #106     Dec 4, 2019
    vanzandt and .sigma like this.
  7. $118, but I am still waiting with ‘bated breathe’
     
    #107     Dec 4, 2019
  8. TheBigShort

    TheBigShort

    no your not! r u serious! let me know how my dust tastes ;)
     
    #108     Dec 4, 2019
  9. destriero

    destriero


    lol no I just Googled it hahaha
     
    #109     Dec 4, 2019
  10. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Hmmm. Ok.
    I have not read this yet.
    At first glance, it doesn't appear all that great.


    Edit: OK, comps came in at 2.9. Revenue and earnings beat. No biggie there on any metric. I knew they sand-bagged the Q.


    ----------------------------

    Five Below, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Financial Results
    Wed December 4, 2019 4:01 PM|GlobeNewswire|About: FIVE
    Q3 net sales increased 21% to $377.4 million

    Q3 EPS above guidance at $0.18

    Raises low end of full year fiscal 2019 outlook

    PHILADELPHIA, PA, Dec. 04, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) today announced financial results for the third quarter and for the year-to-date period ended November 2, 2019.

    For the third quarter ended November 2, 2019:

    • Net sales increased by 20.7% to $377.4 million from $312.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2018; comparable sales increased by 2.9%.

    • The Company opened 61 new stores and ended the quarter with 894 stores in 36 states. This represents an increase in stores of 20.0% from the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2018.

    • Operating income was $12.7 million compared to $15.5 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2018. As expected, operating income decreased primarily due to net unmitigated tariff costs and the timing of certain merchandise costs.

    • The effective tax rate was 24.2% compared to 18.6% in the third quarter of fiscal 2018.

    • Net income was $10.2 million compared to $13.5 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2018.

    • Diluted income per common share was $0.18 compared to $0.24 in the third quarter of fiscal 2018. The benefit from share-based accounting was less than a penny in the third quarter of fiscal 2019 compared to $0.02 in the third quarter of fiscal 2018.

    • The Company repurchased 191,367 shares at a cost of approximately $20.3 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2019.
    Joel Anderson, President and CEO of Five Below, stated, “We are very pleased with our third quarter performance. Our strong top and bottom line results exceeded our expectations and were driven by continued strength from our new stores as well as broad-based performance across our worlds. We also opened a record 61 stores in diverse markets during the quarter, and have since completed our 150 planned new stores for the year.”

    Mr. Anderson continued, “We are ready and excited to deliver a great holiday shopping experience for our customers. We believe our assortment of $1 to $5 items, as well as our new Ten Below Gift Shop section highlighting toys and games, reinforces our position as a go-to destination for holiday stocking stuffers and gifts at unbeatable value. We remain firmly committed to providing extreme value to our customers on fresh, high quality, trend-right products with a fun, differentiated shopping experience.”

    For the year-to-date period ended November 2, 2019:

    • Net sales increased by 21.2% to $1,159.6 million from $956.9 million in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018; comparable sales increased by 2.4%.

    • The Company opened 144 new stores compared to 120 new stores opened in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018.

    • Operating income was $73.2 million compared to $70.7 million in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018. As expected, operating income for the year-to-date period ended November 2, 2019 was impacted by net unmitigated tariff costs, unanniversaried tax reform-related investments incurred during the first quarter of 2019, the costs of the new Southeast distribution center, and the new lease accounting standard.

    • The effective tax rate was 16.1% compared to 18.2% in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018 reflecting the higher benefit from share-based accounting incurred during the year-to-date period ended November 2, 2019.

    • Net income was $64.7 million compared to $60.4 million in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018.

    • Diluted income per common share was $1.15 compared to $1.07 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018. The benefit from share-based accounting was $0.13 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2019 compared to $0.08 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018.
    Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2019 Outlook:

    The Company expects the following results for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019. This outlook now includes:

    • The expectation that Section 301 tariffs as currently enacted by the Office of the United States Trade Representative will remain in place on Lists 1, 2 and 3 goods at 25% and on List 4A goods at 15%, with List 4B goods at 15%, to become effective December 15, 2019.

    • The effective tax rate in fiscal 2019 is expected to be approximately 22.0%, which excludes any potential future impact from share-based accounting.

    • The diluted weighted average shares outstanding does not include any potential future impact from share repurchases.
    For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019:

    • Net sales are expected to be in the range of $717 million to $732 million based on opening approximately 6 new stores and assuming a 2% to 3% increase in comparable sales.

    • Net income is expected to be in the range of $110.7 million to $115.2 million.

    • Diluted income per common share is expected to be in the range of $1.97 to $2.05 on approximately 56.1 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding.
    For the full year of fiscal 2019:

    • Net sales are expected to be in the range of $1.877 billion to $1.892 billion based on opening 150 new stores and assuming an approximate 2.5% increase in comparable sales.

    • Net income is expected to be in the range of $175.4 million to $179.9 million.

    • Diluted income per common share is expected to be in the range of $3.11 to $3.19 on approximately 56.3 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding.
     
    #110     Dec 4, 2019