Chucky, For options, I'm not that familiar with them, but I've seen Najarian on time after time pointing to active options on a stock and how it showed the direction of earnings. "Yes Virginia, there IS insider trading" Cash
yes most earnings come out after hrs, but when the market opens the next day on a gap, you'll be taken in at market price, sinse price gapped above or below your order once your in the trade, you can cancle the other order, or use an OCO order if your broker has them. I dont know much about options, but i do know, that id go long athn rather than short, AND the march 30 calls have the most volume...investors are betting that in the next 3 weeks, athn will be up to 30 PSA looks like a good trade for next week.
i see now, what you are saying about the buy or sell stop. i had always thought that would work too, but funny thing is it doesnt. (for my limited experience) at least not for me here is why: u will notice the morning fake out. so for instance it will gap up over night $2 in the morning explode up .50 and within 1 min be down .50 granted it does not happen like that all the time, but it does happen like 30% esrx was like that. so what would happen is u would miss the $2 if your lucky break even or make a .10 and if you are not quick lose. that would suck cause you would have had a nice sized winner. but i still like that idea and i thought of that idea myself. i would like to backtest that one for a week or two could really be interesting. speaking of backtesting and on a totally different subject. i backtested 90 days lows and shorting and it came up with a substantial profit. any thoughts?? PS - i read a post on backtesting that i agree with and that is, backtesting doesnt mean anything cause when by bad luck u lose the first 10 in real life then u start feeling it and then you play wrong and then u lose, then what is backtesting really gonna do. you have to play, that is the only way to see if it works. i can sit back and monday morning qb all the nfl games, but could i play, nope. thats why i dont monday morning qb. i am zen. it is, what it is
If you mean the last 90 days, then I'm not surprised. Try the 90 days 8/1/06 - 11/1/06... how does shorting work then? If you did it for 90 random days in the last 10 years, then there might be something.
I was thinking about starting a topic about earnings estimates but then I saw this topic so I will post here. Most of the earnings estimates you see on the web come from Thomson First Call. Does anyone here have a subscription to it? There are several questions I have it. The first would be how much does it cost? And how timely are these estimates? If a earnings report comes out tomorrow are the estimates a month old or do the analysis always update them when their opinion of the stock changes. Reuters.com and Yahoo.com provide the most free detailed information about estimates from what I've seen. Has anyone found anything better?
matt, curious what u are thinking?? any help to develop this would be great. as for earnings, etrade has a comprehensive section in their research section. u see the earnings for the past 12 quarters and projected earnings for 1 2 or 3 years. also i can give u a tip, once u have selected a few stocks u think might go up, then got to their websites, they have great info there that solidifies your opinion. enjoy
I have been trading earnings after hours. I try to react to earnings report as quickly as possible so I have a position in the stock before it moves. I am looking for more detail about earnings estimates such as what each analysis predicted rather than all the estimates averaged together.
interesting idea would love to discuss that with. that does not work for me. some stocks dont trade after hours and u miss the big moves. other stocks do trade after hours but there are huge swings. plus they announce at all different times. very hard to pinpoint. u have any experience on what i am talking about
Earnings.com and i think briefing.com also has free earnings report data. dish networks reports this week, so does AZO BIG and ANN ...these might be some big movers. The problem with yahoo's earning page is that you get 100 something listings, but you cant tell whichones are the most important which is rather annoying.
my numbers might be off then, but when price gaps, you get filled at market price. so if you had a buy stop at say 30, and price gaps to 33 at the open, you get filled at 33 you might miss some points on the gap, but hell who knows, price could still move another couple points. goldman and google are famous for this, to name a few. I'm not a day trader though, i have day traded in the past. The only problem is with gaps are that they usually want to fill...check CSTR and DLTR to see what i mean. This is why waiting for the gap and taking the other side is the better bet sometimes. cm69