Earnings play -- short calendar spread

Discussion in 'Options' started by jimmyjazz, Apr 9, 2015.



  1. You didn't provide vital info such as:
    • Stock
    • Option strikes
    • Option expiry
    So I will use AAPL as an example. When real quotes are used the position can easily be visualized and everybody is on the same page.
    • AAPL at $126.81
    • Earnings April 27
    • Buy April17 126.00 Call at $1.82
    • Sell May15 125.00 Call at $5.35

    Why would you be worried about both legs going deep OTM?

    Also ...... Your first impression of a potential stock movement is most likely correct. In your case you expect a breakout - so I would base my option play around that and keep the position simple:

    • Buy Calls
    • Buy a Debit Spread
    • Sell a Put Credit Spread

    If you over-analyze the situation you will find reasons not to make the trade.



    :)
     
    #11     Apr 10, 2015
  2. Looking at your example, I don't know why you would say AAPL is set to break out (presumably meaning break to the upside). Yeah, that's the trend direction, but in my view it could just as easily dump. So, the short calendar spread would be appropriate, except for my concerns about the back month volatility.
     
    #12     Apr 10, 2015

  3. The AAPL example is not a trade recommendation, or does it express my views on AAPL. It's purely for visual reference to a (long ATM near-term / short ATM farther out) position as you stated in your OP, and it addresses your concern about both legs ending up deep OTM.




    :)
     
    #13     Apr 10, 2015
  4. Well . . . OK? I'm not sure what you're trying to show. I'm still on board with the idea that a back month volatility explosion would possibly blow out my account, so it's a no go. I like sleeping at night.
     
    #14     Apr 10, 2015

  5. To show your concern about a long ATM near-term / short ATM farther-out position ending up deep OTM is unwarranted. You should be able to buy-to-close the short options at a nice profit when the near-term options expire worthless.



    That would be an extremely rare black swan event.



    Then stick to option combos that expire at the same time and have clear risk/reward ratios.




    :)
     
    #15     Apr 10, 2015
    donnap likes this.
  6. considering short calender as a earnings play is a good thought i think :)
     
    #16     Apr 13, 2015