Hey guys, I have some time to catch up. If a market is competitive, it's much harder to extract alpha. Isn't this what Zack's claims as their edge? I think they said they have a 70% win rate (all marketing imo). This is hard to get data for. I have never tried it. Most of the vol is gone by 9.45 which is why OM and I close our positions at that time. If it's not working out, it means you are not selling vol at an expensive price. You know what might help, wait for a juicy one and lever up! There are ~1000 trade-able earnings in the USA this quarter. All you need is a handful to make your whole year. Of that 1000, 50 will pre-report earnings, another 50 will have an earnings move at 2x the average move and another 50 will be priced at .65x the earnings move. The rest of the earnings edge is in delta bets. If you do not have a delta edge, WAIT for the trade. I promise they will come. If news was priced in, why is there a jump on earnings day? realized = historical = stat vol.
Didn’t mean to come across as pessimistic about the delayed exits. Definitely agree they’re much better than wide spreads and higher vol. Just a comment on bad pathing recently. Eventually I’m sure I’ll hit a sequence where a few in a row all path back towards my strikes. Great data on earnings stats, thanks for sharing that. I am still refining for the sweet spot of enough perceived edge to open a trade. Obv lower threshold = more trades but less profit margin, and vice versa. I think as I get more familiar with earnings and have more trades documented this will get easier.
Looking at this earnings calendar... this upcoming week (July1) looks quiet. You guys got anything on your radar?
I'm up late studying. I've looked up all of your threads @TheBigShort and man theres a wealth of knowledge in each one. And I notice you are great at asking questions. Specific questions too not this vague crap I see thrown around all the time. I can't tell you how many hours I've accumulated sifting through @sle @Maverick74 @riskarb @atticus @optioncoach and many more traders on this site who contribute so much knowledge I need to make sure I know the ledge (knowledge). Its easy to trip off the deep end if you arent careful enough. But I find it amazing that I can learn more from this forum than almost any book or other website.. I'm talking about specifics. Thank you all. The journey never stops.
Sorry if this question has been already asked several times, but does it mean that you bought a short butterfly? So you bought one PUT 140, sold 2 puts 125 and bought one Put 110. The total charge was 3.5 and the trasaction was automatic, I mean, you didn't have to buy the three legs separately, but it was donw with only one order? Thanks in advance.
"Bot 1 short butterfly" Is not a term as far as I know. I bot a butterfly that is short deltas. yes. long 1 140 short 2 125 long 1 110 all puts i dont have a ton of edge here. I think atm vol is cheap and I am a bit bearish. The butterfly is cheap enough for me to trade. i am in small