Earnings: IC vs Short Strangle

Discussion in 'Options' started by dbh21, Feb 20, 2012.

  1. Not quite. If you remember, I replied to your comment a while back:

    So I've been bearish fundamentally but bullish based on historical earnings related activity- history doesn't necessarily repeat all the time.

    Rather than be short and risk losing a ton, I've decided to take some chance and give myself a better risk-reward if I'm right. I'll risk a very small amount on the back month put and see if it works out. I won't lose out on much if I'm wrong.

    But if I'm right, I stand to make a handsome profit- goes towards my tuition anyways LOL!
     
    #81     Feb 26, 2012
  2. Based on your flip-flop from a few hours ago take a look at:
    • PCLN @ $590.00
    • Buy Mar16 2012 565.00 Puts @ $16.20
    • Sell Mar16 2012 530.00 Puts @ $5.70
    • Debt about $10.00
    • Move the strikes according to how far you believe PCLN will drop, and how much you are willing to risk.


    :)
     
    #82     Feb 26, 2012
  3. Thanks Captain Obvious.... and it's "debit". We got it. Rain is wet. Moron.
     
    #83     Feb 26, 2012


  4. :) "A picture is worth a thousand words" :)

    [​IMG]
     
    #84     Feb 26, 2012
  5. Listen bud,

    A kid can do that analysis. I'm not THAT new to trading.

    And it's money I'm talking about. I'm not ashamed of changing my opinion at a whim.

    Hell tomorrow I might go long straddle. I don't care as long as I think I have an edge with it.

    Besides, I when I said I expect it to go up overall- I MEANT IT!

    "But babutime, lol, you're contradicting yourself, lol"

    Yeah, it seems like it. But I'm looking at the first moment- the expectation which is heavily lopsided. I wont elaborate much on that.

    The fact that you were so concerned about my flip-flop (which really was me trying to find some good risk-reward scenario) shows that perhaps you're not so good with making money- being married to ideas is the the first sign of an emotional trader.
     
    #85     Feb 26, 2012

  6. Based on the above information I recommend you stay away from a PCLN earnings trade, it's too hot for you. Just sit on the sidelines and perhaps try a trade for next earnings when you have more confidence. :)
     
    #86     Feb 27, 2012
  7. And how will things change in the next trade? It's about how comfortable I am losing a couple $100 bucks. Which I am.

    As for it being "TOO HOT", I've been through a few earnings trades already- AAPL and NTAP to name a couple.

    As for the "information above", you obviously didn't understand my point so I'll leave it at that.
     
    #87     Feb 27, 2012
  8. Depends on the info you provide.
    $200.00 maximum risk? That changes things a lot on a $600.00 tech stock just before earnings, your options have been severely limited. Your looking at spreads only 1 strike apart or long DOTM.

    Best to stay clear of PCLN with your meager budget, take it off your watch list :)
     
    #88     Feb 27, 2012
  9. Hey guys, where would I find information on FDA announcements like VVUS?
     
    #89     Feb 27, 2012
  10. O well,

    Just found out I can't even trade because I made some pattern day trades last week.

    I'll have to wait a day before I make some trades.

    Funny!

    This is exams week for me anyways so I'll just step aside. Have one long call position in AAPL. And thats pretty much it.
     
    #90     Feb 27, 2012