Earnings are starting to look fugly

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ByLoSellHi, Apr 7, 2008.

  1. From a purely fundamental perspective, I think weak earnings are going to crush the markets.

    Most of you probably have a basket of long term holds that won't part with no matter what happens, some riskier assets that you chased on momentum, and then those short term plays you strictly trade.

    Competent traders are going to be king of the mountain for a while here. Taleb and his followers may strike gold in short order, too.

    One thing is certain; if the earnings' season progresses in as consistent a manner as it started, we're headed much lower.
     
  2. Like the larger slower 2nd wave of a Tsunami - after the first fast frothy wave (cf financials) people think it is all over and relax, but it isn't.
     
  3. I agree. This is just the calm before the storm.
     
  4. The recent rally's have brought most stock prices and index's back to the upper bounds of what is already a strong down trend. All that is required now is a trigger. Fire away.....
     
  5. i think its possible we go a bit higher and create a false sense of a bottom.

    but before the year is done the bottom pickers will be left with nothing more than a smelly finger
     
  6. kamek

    kamek

    i think it will come next week when banks report or the end of this week if we have preannoucements. alotta money could be made/ vice versa
     
  7. Bowgett

    Bowgett

    This is bullish according to Ned Davis Research

    When quarterly earnings growth (year-over-year basis) is... Average S&P 500 index gain during such quarters, annualized, is
    Above 20%: 2.0%
    Between 5% and 20%: 6.0%
    Between minus 20% and 5%: 13.1%
    Below minus 20%: -14.8%

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...4E-B8EC-4080-B7AC-7489D17FDDA5}&dist=hplatest
     
  8. we're going higher. Bad earnings already priced in (why do you think stock are down 13% from highs?)
     
  9. One scenario is that management manipulates the books as much as they can for the next two quarters while they sell stock.

    TIF, announced a buyback, then changed their inventory accounting and used tis as the basis for upgrading FY guidance, meanwhile, Management are dumping their stock. Expect to see a lot of this.
     
  10. A little over a month ago you said we should all forget about trading and volatility, get the hell out and go net short. What has changed so traders have an edge again? :confused:
     
    #10     Apr 8, 2008