Hello traders, my question is as follows. I have been operating in simulated one week and I have doubled my account. As it is a simulation, I have operated with 30 ES contracts. However, when operating in real, it is much more difficult to be consistent. In simulation when I gained 5 points I closed the trade. When operating with 30 contracts the account rose progressively. When operating in real attempt to always win more than 10 points, at the end the price turns and I jump the stop. Want to earn less points makes the trade more profitable? How many average points do you earn per trade in the ES?
I don't trade ES personally but I think your problem won't be solved by asking people how they do in the ES. I think your problem is the discrepancy between live and paper trading. In paper trading you generally dont factor in slippage (unless you deliberately do, which it seems you haven't). Slippage is a huge reason why your trades aren't very consistent. Assuming you're trading 30 contracts live during day trading hours you're swinging at least a 30,000 line. You have a lot of room to lose profit to slippage even in a liquid market like ES. It sounds like you're not getting ideal fills. I'd suggest going back to backtesting and factoring in slippage to your strategy. It seems you're placing market orders rather than limit orders (just an assumption) and so you need to build that in since very rarely are market orders filled exactly where you expected. Perhaps considering building your strategy around limit orders instead so your entries and exits are more defined. You weren't very specific I hope this helps some.
Only you may know what target makes sense statistically (adjusted to the current level of volatility). Anybody else's advice is irrelevant, cause their system is different.
I think you are asking how your fills will compare sim vs. live when trading these larger order sizes? I reckon' the best bet is to start with a smaller amount, say 10. Then scale up from there. If the 10s works, then go to 15, then 20, etc etc. At the contract number it stops working, you just stay at that contract amount, and maybe even scale back a few contracts per trade to assure more consistent fills The ES is the most liquid future in the CME world, period. If it doesn't work there in the ES, it will not work anywhere.
Each price structure offers different opportunities. If you are looking to trade ES, my best advice is to trade less, but put on bigger size. Wait for the good opportunities. If you are trading a market like NQ, scalp the crap out of it if you want. Costs less to get in and out. If ES, rarely will I take a trade where I think it has less than 2 point potential. In normal volatility, looking for 2-4 points. In this volatility, you can expand that range to about 6 points.
Hold on ... You are trading differently in sim vs. live? Why would you do that on purpose? How about scaling in/out? Just trade your plan!
The biggest problem I see for people who are paper or demo trading versus real is not slippage.. that is easy to calculate. # trades or # contracts x spread x2= in and out or open and close trade.. the real reason RETAIL Backtesting of systems and demo trades that work in dmeio do not work in REAL LIVE trading is because even a 1 lot has MARKET IMAPACT.. no one ever seems to talk about this which make sme realize very few ever really trade a live account. ALGO's and prop traders GUN for your retail orders from the get go.. you really think it is a fair playng field and you are truly anonymous.. think again. My poin ti s that in any system even the smallest trade has an impact and someone somwhere or some algo is going to test you and put pressure on you by movingn mkt against you immediately to try and get you to scare out. It is not just slippage.. it is true mkt impact. you don't just make a trade and ok mkt will go do whatever it wants.. it takes into accoutn who you are where your trade came from (FCM) and then figures out what it thinks you are doing and tries to figure out its best course of next action.. I ahve seen it with 1 lots and even more so with 8 lots. 8 lots are my max trades. this really happens and that is why demo is dumb unless tryign to larn ordr types. even my market orders.. are usually a half secodn behind. from home you are always buying late and selling early which ads even more money lost. jsut my 2 cents
It really is very complicated. using the action of the price, supports and resistances and candles of one hour and only has 50% chance to hit.