Many thanks to NYMEX for this retarded (albeit opportunity laden) pre-open, lets call it arbapalooza! PS - What changed since Friday? How many times are we going to mark up CL $3 on a storm that's in line with predictions from a week ago? Did someone actually expect it to disintegrate over Cuba and go away? Smells like a hot potato to me.
Bro, I'm not debating what the price of NG SHOULD be...I agree with you that it is significantly undervalued... But you can't ignore the market action, which was decidely weak, with a storm heading into the Gulf EXACTLY as the traders had bet - Cat 4 heading into the Gulf...If we get any sign of slowdown in this storm, we could shit the bed. Odds don't suggest that, and yet the market still falls and closes near the lows of the day/week/month. Someone could very well be caught seriously long and is puking a la amaranth style trade. We just don't know who it is yet. We might never know. COT reports for energies are the only ones that I don't follow because I think they are useless since the Enron Loophole skews who is a Comm and who is a Spec. we are probably nearing some kind of bottom in NG, and hence the major volatility...probably one more capitulation and then we take off...I am long outright calls in X and G, playing with minis and delta writes... Again, you can't say this price action is anything but neutral/bearish. In my opinion of course... If any market can turn tail and run in a hurry, it's this one.
Hurricane only seems to be at Cat-2 ( 105MPH ) strength right now and is showing some weakening aspects. The storm however is moving along faster than initially projected. Should be running into a cold eddy in the Gulf later tonight which could slow it further, albeit temporarily. Wind shear is currently running at a moderate range of 10-15 knots. A tear in the eye-wall has been noticed, which is a weakening sign. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html Probably gonna be no greater than a Cat-3 when it hits the Louisiana coast.
I couldnt have said it any better PohPoh. It all becomes clear when you really think about it. Do you trade outright futures as well? I seem some big bids coming across now
Centaurus guys are ex-Enron, I think, though I don't care enough to research my disinformation... But Centaurus was on the opposite side of Brian Hunter in the Amaranth debcale... (again, could be wrong, don't want to check)
I trade a little bit of everything... soft spots for crazy markets like NG... Take a look at the NG action after Ivan in 2004 (large selloff on landfall, and then it rallied for 2 years.) We might see something similar to that... Firms with very large pockets can buy at 8, 7, 6, 5, 4 and not break a sweat. These markets are not too big that they can't be manipulated by those with enough cash.
Ya I trade NG frequently and it is a great market to trade. Regardless of what happens now I think NG remains a buy at these levels, I have been buying dips and have done fairly well with it the last few weeks. Just in and out and in and out. I really might try and build a position out of this though, it looks to be a very cold harsh winter coming up. (source farmers almanac) Do you have a postion now?
according to weather underground. The storm is now intensifying again. This thing is extremely unpredictable. Poor people in the gulf. Fucked Cuba up pretty bad as well