Early exits are killing me.

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by EMini-Player, Jun 25, 2003.

  1. Tbill1

    Tbill1

    FastTrader,

    I asked because you mentioned a price target that you could have reached "later in the day." How do you raise your trailing stops if you are not there?
     
    #41     Jun 25, 2003
  2. I know this post was not directed toward myself. But this was a problem that I overcame and helped me become profitable.
    Even if you only shoot for a 2-1 ratio you can have horrible accuracy of 34.2% and still come out even! Now let those gains run to 3-1 and you`re in business. In the long run you will have a lower winning % but you`re ROI will be higher.

    Good luck and stress free trading.
    C.
     
    #42     Jun 25, 2003
  3. "Trailing" stops...they trail and move with the price, so it would get hit if/when the price moved down later in the day.

    -FastTrader
     
    #43     Jun 25, 2003
  4. Stress-free trading? What's that? :p :D

    -FastTrader
     
    #44     Jun 25, 2003
  5. Elliott

    Elliott


    Fasttrader:

    May be a restatement of previous advise but try to develop your approach to take a predetermined % of the market breakout based upon your analysis of stock breakouts with similar characteristics of what you've chosen. Also for the Q's. Do backtesting though.

    You can backtest without programs, takes longer though. Once you come to a conclusion of reasonable profit targets, under similar market conditions (market conditions are never the same), stick to your backtested figures till the market proves you wrong.

    Don't worry about not catching the entire move after that. As long as your win/loss and profit targets remain reasonable, you'll be well ahead of the game.


    Much Success to all,
     
    #45     Jun 25, 2003
  6.  
    #46     Jun 25, 2003
  7. OOPS...forgot the chart.
     
    #47     Jun 25, 2003
  8. Kermit

    Kermit

    Fast_Trader:

    If you’re constrained to only trade the first hour of the market open (and sometimes only the first ½ hour, like today), due to your other job schedules, then it is to be expected that your profits will be limited to what the market makes available to you during that allotted time slot; as you’ll have to exit your position(s) – go flat, before you head out the door for work (if that’s your strategy). If I had all 7 hours to which I can sit and follow the market, then I’d expect to be able to capture larger moves as they play themselves out during the wider window. However, my impression is that the early exits which you are speaking of, really transcends the fact whether you are operating with a 1-hour window or a 7-hour window.

    Perhaps it’s best to start by answering to yourself why you have chosen to exit the CVTX at 30.44 or BRCM at 24.61 or NVLS at 35.82. If they are due to the same reasons of “lack of time” as was your QQQ trade, then my initial statement seems to apply. On the other hand if each (with the exception of CVTX) all went further AND was within your 1-hour window, then you’ll have to examine a different “why”.

    If it is not an issue of time limitations and there is the tendency is to exit trades just shortly after price leaves the gate then it seems that you might be trying to increase your tally of winners over losers. It’s not so much how many winners you have over how many losers but how BIG your wins are over how small your losses are that will carry you through the day/week/month/year.

    If getting out of your position when it’s about mid way through the move is more the prevailing habit in your trading, then I would try to revisit the 1st point made just above AND use some sort of a close trailing stop. Again, I am assuming it’s not a time constraint issue.

    Finally, if you’re getting out when price is close to or just shy of your target, then it becomes more a matter of using your experience and intuition. Do you hang on waiting for that last couple of points/ticks to occur or just cash in? Is the market showing signs of hesitation in trying to reach your target (but then, the market doesn’t really know you have whatever you refer to as your target anyway) or is it on an unstoppable thrust towards your target and possibly beyond? Maybe you’ll have to reevaluate the mechanism(s) by which you compute your targets to begin with.

    Anyway, those are just a few pertinent areas that I can think of.

    Kermit
     
    #48     Jun 25, 2003
  9. jorgemb

    jorgemb

    I know very little about risk-reward ratios. Can anyone suggest material to learn more about the subject and it's applications?

    I've read the following:

    Alexander Elder: Come Into My Trading Room
    Donald Cassidy: It's When You Sell That Counts
    Steve Nison: Japanese Candlesticks

    None of these discuss the subject.

    Of course any feedback would be appreciated.

    Thank You

    Jorge
     
    #49     Jun 25, 2003

  10. Don Miller and Tony Oz are excellent risk/reward traders.
     
    #50     Jun 25, 2003