what i'm thinking is the July L was W 1 , currently, C of ABC W 2 correction that may complete before the month end while the April H stopped at the 61.8 of the March 09 LL to Oct 07 HC black fibo currently the April-July drop appears to be interacting with the LL to HH white fibo of the 07-09 drop, tho there's not much between them at the lower fibo levels the 1120 area is specifically the LL-HH 50% fibo and for the present i'm watching to see if the price will stop, hold, reversal formation then begin a large W 3 decline were the price to continue rallying, break the 1150 and head toward 1200 and the 61.8 fibos, until the end of November ? it's possible the formation from April to its top could be an inverted H&S / AB reversal formation - similar to the July-Oct 07 formation - in which case W 1 Down has not yet begun in either case, i don't see the price travelling to 1500 and beyond
since the ES hits time targets this week, it's time for this post M/Weekly line charts illustrate most clearly what I believe is a reversal formation - actually the ending/completion an H&S/AB - signalling the change from Bull trend to Bear trend, and the possible 'Double Dip' of the indexes - if not recession for the Bulls, this formation could be A and B of a correction that would likely see the price drop to the 1000 area - C before rallying once again - W 3 in either the Bull or Bear scenario, it's that 1000 that is The level that decides if a Bull market is intact or will see the price go through it to 666 or lower Q2 ? before we know for the price to hit the white 61.8 level it must travel 36.68 points, and it may close on or just above that fibo what could happen: this week's end will see a high close, then a reversal formation and high close again week Nov 12 , Then the price begins its fall the week after that charts: Monthly . Weekly . Daily . 4H .
the price corrected from the 61.8 fibo level, and obviously rallied since then, it may have another smaller correction as it passes thru this 'resistance' of sorts level, on its way to the 76 level around 1350 ; and if continuing at the same angle of ascent would see that price level hit as early as the last week of February, to mid March
the attached shows the Daily charts of the DJII and ES/500 both charts have fibos on them drawn from the HH-LL - blue / black and from the HC-LL - white what's a bit surprising from my pov is how the Dow hit both 76s while the ES didn't reach either 76
Still far from a potential top. There will be a strong test around 1375 SPX and then the price action will need to be examined to see how far we can proceed pass that. I suppose on a first test we retrace quite significantly there, then from there the second mouse will get the cheese. Crazy A
I was going to end this thread thinking the top had finally appeared and it was all down from here, however, I'm not so sure now that there won't be another wave up that might break the 1500 level, but, could then be a possible H&S formation that would be completing a formation begun in 2000 then again, the DJIA chart Really looks like an H&S game-over, and the RUT has a double top as does the Nasdaq so I think it's 3:1 The top Is in
But one can easily say 3:1 that small caps will do great in the coming years and RUT will breakout like butter, same for nasdaq as companies accelerate their capex spending... while the dow and the sp play catch up for that multi-decade triple top that may end up leading to a major, massive, multi-index breakout by 2015. Why not? Some argue for a new SP high by Oct. 2012.
You rros might easily say that "small caps will do great in the coming years" and believe in the "major, massive, multi-index breakout by 2015." - and only four years away - including a new "SP high by Oct. 2012" however the indicies have yet to complete the First of several waves Down if the Nasday stops at 1000 I'll be shocked, shocked let me try and illustrate the situation - as I see it - with this analogy the deepest and longest mine rescue is believed to be that of the 33 Chilean miners trapped for 69 days at a depth of nearly 700 metres - 2296 feet, one year ago first, the indicies have to drop 2296 'feet', then, we have to figure out a way to 'rescue' the indicies - capex aside - then, we wait 69 'days' while the 'rescue' is - attempted, and after 69 'days' will the indicies be looking like Mount Everest ? or still at 'ground level' ?